Let’s call it what it is: the summer grind is in full effect — but under the surface, we’re seeing a rotation that could ignite something bigger. I didn’t come in looking to play hero today, but when the flows set up right, we take the shots that matter.
Key Takeaways
Tech’s Slippery Momentum
- NVDA, AAPL, and TSLA were showing early weakness — and that matters. This market doesn’t go without the generals leading, and when they fade, it invites sellers.
- We didn’t have to chase breakdowns. We just needed to recognize where tech was stretched and losing steam — and fade the bounce instead of buying it.
Rotation Watch: Energy and Financials
- XLE and XLF were showing signs of life while QQQ chopped — a classic rotation move. Don’t ignore it. That’s institutional capital getting ahead of the crowd.
- These kinds of subtle moves are what signal the next wave of leadership. Not today’s trade, but definitely tomorrow’s setup.
Patience Paid — Again
- The best trade was not the first one. Waiting through the 10am shakeout kept us clean and focused for the high-odds setups as they developed mid-morning.
- If you're sitting in chop wondering why you’re stuck, zoom out — timing still matters. Early action is for traps, not glory.
What I’m Watching
Keep an eye on yield plays and dollar strength. If the dollar starts to surge, it’ll pressure tech and lift energy — and that’s the kind of theme that can carry us through August. The VIX might be asleep, but positioning is getting tight.
Not every day needs fireworks. But if you’re dialed in, even the slow burns pay. See you in the morning.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE