You bought calls on Monday. The market went up. You did it again the next week. Same result.
Now you think you have found a pattern.
You have. But that pattern is about to destroy you.
Out of the last 18 Mondays, 17 have closed green.
Traders have been conditioned like lab rats to buy every Monday open. The problem is nobody understands why this pattern exists or what happens when it breaks.
I have traded for 39 years. I helped build the algorithm logic at ThinkorSwim that Wall Street still uses today.
What I am about to show you is the mechanical reason behind the Monday rally.
You will learn why algorithms cannot sell on the way up, why retail order flow is the only fuel left, and why the eventual reversal will erase months of gains in a single session.
The Monday Morning Machine
Last night the futures dropped 60 points. It looked like the turn was finally here.
It was not.
They dropped it in the middle of the night. They formed a hammer candle. They roped in the shorts. Then they ran it straight back up by the open.
I have watched this sequence repeat for almost 40 years. I never bite on it. Never.
The MACD did not cross over. The indicators did not align. Until those conditions are met, shorting this market is a wealth transfer mechanism.
What Drives the Mania
There is no fundamental catalyst. None.
Japan's bond market is melting down. Treasuries are being liquidated. The financial pipes are cracking everywhere you look.
The market does not care.
Here is what actually drives prices higher every Monday:
- Retail order flow floods in at the open with call buying
- Algorithms are programmed to buy slopes, not sell them
- Zero DTE options create a sugar high that lasts until close
- No institutional selling exists because the machines are not programmed for it
This is not investing. This is crap shooting with leverage.
The Four Hour Truth
I run the Genesis COG model off a four hour indicator. Right now it shows four reasons not to short.
The MACD slope is up. The K and D are rising. Price remains inside the algorithmic channel. Every momentum reading says the same thing.
You cannot short on the way up. Algorithms are not programmed to sell rising slopes. They only respond to order flow and technical triggers.
When neither exists, shorting becomes capital destruction.
The Pipe Will Burst
I took my family to Trader Joe's last night.
The police were out front. A pipe had burst inside the building. Everyone was standing in the cold waiting for something that was not going to reopen.
That is this market.
The liquidity pipe is going to burst. When it does, you will not get a warning. You will not get a bounce. The algorithms that ran this up 2,500 points will run it down just as fast.
I am 43% long and 57% cash right now. By the time we push higher, I will probably be 70% to 80% cash.
The Professor's Rule
My finance professor at graduate school drank like a fish. But he was the best instructor I ever had.
He repeated one phrase constantly. Cash is king. Whoever has cash survives and runs markets.
Do you have enough cash?
If this market went to 7,500 tomorrow, I would not chase it. The upside is incremental. The downside is catastrophic. The asymmetry has never been more skewed against buyers.
When manic behavior ends, it does not taper off. It collapses. That is the clinical pattern and that is the market pattern.
Position Accordingly
The Genesis COG System does not predict when mania ends. It identifies when the technical conditions shift from buy to sell.
Right now those conditions say do not short. They also say do not chase.
The only winning move is raising cash while everyone else drools at the open.
Seventeen out of eighteen Mondays. At some point, the diagnosis changes.
See how Genesis COG identifies when manic markets finally break →
Professor Jeffrey Bierman
Creator of the Genesis COG System