Markets opened soft, futures chopping under 6,700, crude sliding, and gold ripping to fresh all-time highs. Momentum remains firmly green, but it’s the same story we’ve seen all year—liquidity expansion keeps driving asset prices higher, even as insiders step aside and the rest of the market lags the Mag Seven. If you’re not watching the liquidity cycle, you’re trading blind.
Key Takeaways
Momentum still green, but narrow
- The Mag Seven held strong above the 8- and 20-day averages while the other 495 names in the S&P were flat to down.
- That’s leverage and retirement flows propping up the same handful of names, not broad strength.
Liquidity expansion explains everything
- Global liquidity has surged by $15 trillion since January.
- Gold, silver, and miners are screaming higher because this isn’t about rates—it’s about printing.
New risks hitting tech
- Proposed $100k H1-B visa fees could weigh on Indian IT services and ripple into big tech staffing models.
- Names like Infosys, Wipro, and Cognizant become tactical VWAP trades when headlines spark volatility.
Trade setups on the board
- Brookfield (BAM) flagged as a long-term “buy and own” with spreads around $55 offering 20% annualized returns.
- Adobe reclaiming key moving averages—watch for reversion around $360–$370.
- Lucid above $21.37 and EBS off $8 stops look like pure momentum setups.
What I’m Watching
Gold and GDX remain the cleanest expressions of liquidity expansion—every pullback to the 8-day is a chance to reload. Semis and big tech continue to hold up the tape, but if FNGD breaks above its 20-day, that tells you leverage is leaving fast. On the single-stock side, BAM spreads are attractive, Adobe is setting up for a retest of the 50-day, and Lucid’s momentum could carry into its 200-day.
Don’t overthink it. Rates, headlines, and Fed theater don’t move markets—liquidity does. As long as $15 trillion keeps sloshing through the system, assets float. But when liquidity snaps, it never gives a warning.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE