Good morning, agents of chaos. Monday’s here, the coffee’s strong, and the headlines are even louder. Between China’s policy pivot, gold going full meme stock, and a market that can’t decide if it’s bullish or bored, we’ve got ourselves a pivotal week. Buckle up — this one’s not for the lazy traders.
Key Takeaways
Gold’s ninth straight week of gains — and counting
- Gold futures hit 4,330 this morning, extending an unprecedented streak higher.
- JP Morgan’s calling for $6,000 gold if even half a percent of foreign-held U.S. assets rotate. Central banks now hold more gold than U.S. dollars for the first time since 1996.
Energy divergence signals rotation
- Crude’s been down three straight weeks while energy equities (XLE, XOM, CVX) diverge.
- Watch RSI and MFI for oversold signals — when they hit, that’s the contrarian trigger Garrett likes to stalk two or three times a year.
China blinks — and the market breathes
- Beijing’s softening its tone, meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Besson after threatening export bans.
- That’s fueling wild action in rare earth names (UAMY, USAR) — intraday charts only this week; stay out of the one-minute nonsense.
Debt, zombies, and the Russell
- Forty percent of Russell 2000 companies now qualify as “zombie stocks.”
- Private credit and regional banks remain the weak link — the real canary in the coal mine as rate-cut chatter heats up.
What I’m Watching
The CPI print and earnings lineup (Tesla, Netflix, Intel, Coca-Cola, defense contractors) could spark 2–4% intraday swings. With Fed speakers silenced for the blackout period and data delays from the shutdown threat, price action will be entirely flow-driven. Watch for clues in volatility (UVXY reclaiming the 50-day), copper weakness as a proxy for Chinese liquidity, and insider accumulation in gold miners and defensives like FDP.
Yes, the system looks like a house of cards. But it’s our house of cards — and if you know how it’s built, you can trade it instead of fearing it. History doesn’t repeat; it leverages. Stay sharp this week — and remember, equilibrium never lasts long.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE