We’re back after a three-day beatdown — and now the question isn’t just “what happened?” It’s “is this real… or is it a trap?”
Because what’s coming next could be big.
Key Takeaways
Funds Are Maxed Out — and That’s a Problem
- CTAs (commodity trading advisors) are sitting near peak equity exposure — 99th percentile.
- That means if the unwind begins, it’ll be sharp, brutal, and fast — just like we’ve seen in previous selloffs.
Momentum Reading: Still Deep in the Red
- Momentum hit -58 today, signaling a major imbalance: 66+ stocks down 5% or more this week… versus only 13 up.
- Outflows from roughly $4 trillion in market cap — the bell curve is breaking.
Insider Activity: The Bullish Canary
- Insiders were buying hand over fist in December and again in April — right before major market rallies.
- If they loaded up again on Friday (we’ll know by Tuesday), it’s short-term bullish… and might reset this market.
Short Squeeze Watch is ON
- Keep eyes on heavily shorted garbage like BYND — these are ripe for 1–2 day pops if momentum flips.
- Trade it smart: use moving averages (like the 300-min on a 15-min chart) as anchors. Above = potential squeeze, below = avoid.
What I’m Watching
The Magnificent 7 are still trading above their 20-day moving averages — but any real break there opens the door for a fast short down to the 50-day. I’m keeping an eye on FNGD (inverse FANG) as the panic gauge — if that thing closes above its 50-day, we could see real fireworks. Meanwhile, American Water Works (AWK) just triggered a rare momentum-based long — worth watching for a higher time frame setup. And on the weak side? Energy and software names continue to slip, with Valero and Workiva looking ripe for premium selling or fades.
This is a macro moment disguised as a Monday.
Don might be charging headfirst over the wall — but me? I’ll be on the second boat, preserving capital and watching for the real opportunity to strike.
Don’t be exit liquidity. Stay patient. Stay sharp. Watch momentum — and trust the tape, not the narrative.
I’ll see you at 8:45 AM sharp tomorrow for Market Masters.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE