The market is a funhouse hall of mirrors these days. On the surface, you’ve got the S&P 500 tagging all-time highs and the Nasdaq just powering higher like it’s the only game in town.
But under the hood it’s a different story. Less than 50% of S&P stocks are even above their five-day moving average, and barely half are trading above their 200-day. That’s not broad-based strength, that’s smoke and mirrors. It’s driven by the same six or seven mega-cap tech stocks that the entire world is hiding in.
Breadth is thinning out. If you’re not paying attention to that, you’re flying blind.
This is what you need to know…
Now, volatility is dropping and skew is rising. The VIX is cheap, which gets people complacent, but skew (the measure of tail-risk hedging) is ticking up. That’s telling you something different is happening under the surface. Institutions are preparing for volatility even if retail thinks it’s all sunshine and rocket emojis. Markets don’t fall when everyone’s hedged, they fall when nobody is. That’s the trap people fall into. And guess what? If you’re just following the indexes, you’re late.
But I’m not here to preach doom and gloom. I’m a trader. I go where the money is, and right now that money is flowing into short squeeze setups, speculative gamma moves, and high short interest names. This environment is tailor-made for tactical trades—low-cost options with outsized reward if you catch the move. Take the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ) this week. Miners had momentum, the dollar was weak, and silver was coiling. I was in at $0.14, looking for a push toward $15. In other words, not a HODL thesis but a tactical strike. Same with Halliburton (HAL). Oil names were catching a bid, and someone dropped a pile on cheap calls. I followed the flow.
This is not a market for sleepy investors or textbook patterns. It’s a flow-driven, algorithm-chasing environment where your edge comes from preparation and timing. I say this every week: your best trades happen in the first 10 minutes of the open. If you're not scanning the tape at 9:30 AM and watching blocks hit the tape, you're a tourist. You don't stumble into opportunity—you prep for it. Sunrun (RUN) was a perfect example this week. Early call buying tipped the hand. If you caught that at the open, you got 16% intraday. If you waited for confirmation, you missed it.
And let me say this: I don’t need every trade to win. I’ll toss $5 or $10 on an idea to see if it catches. It’s about exposure, not ego. If it doesn’t move, I’m out. If it squeezes, I scale. That's how you play when the market's running on fumes and fear of missing out. You manage risk, you hunt opportunity, and you don’t marry your trades.
Stay sharp. This market rewards those who adapt and punishes those who assume.
- Brandon Chapman