This market is rigged; as crooked as a dog’s hind leg… but that doesn’t mean it’s not profitable. Two of our Genesis Cog positions - a pharma play and an energy stock, a long and a short - are making big moves today. But these stocks are by no means the most popular ones out there at the moment.
Let’s take a look at what the crowd’s doing - and do otherwise!
Most of the market's darlings right now are bloated, overhyped shells of companies with little substance and even less value. I’m talking about the stocks everyone thinks they need to own because someone on CNBC, Reddit, or their neighbor’s cousin said it was “going to the moon.” Let’s dissect a few of these ticking time bombs, starting with the biggest joke of all, Roblox (RBLX).
Roblox is a cult stock masquerading as an investment. Its price action is entirely synthetic, the product of algos chasing momentum in thin volume. Don’t get me wrong, the user engagement numbers sound impressive. But what’s the monetization model? Kids buying digital pants with their allowance? Please. It’s a glorified gaming sandbox built on a narrative that has already run out of gas. I wouldn’t short it yet, because the machines still have control, but make no mistake: this is a bubble stock. A “terminal” short when the time is right.
Then there’s Etsy (ETSY), which briefly offered a technical setup that had my attention. But the window closed faster than you can say “MACD divergence.” The crowd missed the breakout, and now it’s overbought and stretched. Chasing this kind of move isn’t trading—it’s gambling. And like all gamblers, most of these retail traders are going to end up broke and bewildered.
Now let's talk about Robinhood (HOOD). It’s the perfect example of a market where branding trumps balance sheets. Retail loves the story: free trades, democratizing finance, yada yada yada. But lift the hood on HOOD (pun 100% intended) and you'll find a fundamentally weak company reliant on options order flow and fleeting hype. There’s no real innovation, just marketing gloss. In the real world, that doesn’t translate into a sustainable business model. It’s a momentum mirage—enticing, but deadly.
DoorDash (DASH) is another name that defies gravity… and logic. The company is barely profitable, valued like it’s Amazon in 1998. It operates in a brutally competitive, low-margin sector. Every time I analyze it, I see a terminal short in the making. But again, I won’t touch it until the technicals align. Right now, it’s a feeding frenzy of chart-chasing. When that cools, you’ll see this stock go down the trash chute faster than your cold pad thai.
Meanwhile, the so-called “safe names” like Wells Fargo (WFC) and Campbell’s (CPB) aren’t as safe as they seem. Wells broke out on regulatory reform, but now it’s fully priced in. Buying here is late to the party. And Campbell’s? Great for hoarding in a fallout shelter, but dead money in a real portfolio. If you want to sleep at night, look at General Mills (GIS) instead. It’s cheaper, better managed, and less likely to disappoint when the market finally wakes up from this algo-induced fever dream.
Bottom line: in this rigged, machine-driven market, you must have discipline. Don't get hypnotized by momentum. These stocks aren’t investments—they’re time bombs. And when the liquidity dries up, they’ll implode faster than the crowd can say “buy the dip.”
-Jeff Bierman