No Recession In Q4: Strong Consumer If this is a recession, no one told consumers. A key takeaway from the November consumer sentiment report is the economy isn’t in a recession now. Consumer spending growth should be solid in November and December. Many think the best chance of negative GDP growth
Stocks Recover On Friday After Solid PMI Sometimes we’ve seen the stock market ignore big economic data. It wouldn't be surprising if the stock market ignored the Markit report because it usually follows the ISM report closer. However, on Friday stocks increased slightly as they should of after the
Solid October Existing Home Sales Many predicted strong results from the existing and new home sales reports this week. October existing home sales reading missed estimates, but increased from September. This was a good report. Sales increased from 5.36 million to 5.46 million which is a 1.9% increa
S P 500 In A 3 Day Losing Streak S P 500 fell again on Thursday as the market finally makes sense again. After being very overbought, a sense of normalcy has returned. S P 500 was down 0.16% on Thursday which means it is still within 1% of its record high. It’s still nice to see the
Jobless Claims Stay Modestly Elevated Last week jobless claims rose. Claims were revised higher by 2,000 to 227,000. Estimates didn’t change anything. Furthermore, the number of claims in the latest report showed the increase stayed (no states were estimates in this report). There were 227,000 claim
Finally, A Small Decline The stock market finally had a significant down day. It wasn’t a huge down day, but the streak of days without back to back losses ended. S P 500 was down 0.38%. Somehow VIX was down 8 basis points as it fell to 12.38. So its streak of being below 15 continued.
Another Good MBA Applications Report MBA Applications report from the week of November 15th was strong again. Composite index was down 2.2% weekly after it rose 9.6%. This weakness was because of the refinance index which was down 8% after rising 13%. It’s not surprising refinancing is down because
Volatility spikes on news that phase 1 of the trade deal may be postponed until January. Don explains the risks ahead if the trade deal were to be delayed. What sectors and stocks to watch and what types of trades could be opportunities...
Another Flat Day For Stocks S P 500 was flat again on Tuesday as it fell just 5 basis points. The market has been flat most days in the past few weeks with the occasional sharp rally. You’d think markets would have more to react to since the economy is very weak and expectations are for
Economy Near Recession? October industrial production report pushed the Arouba Diabold Scotti (ADS) business conditions index to -0.783 on October 22nd. It's very close to the recession line which is -0.80. Obviously, we need to watch the November industrial production report very closely. If it wor
