December CPI Report: Headline Inflation Rises December CPI report was in line with estimates on a yearly basis, but missed them on a monthly basis. Headline inflation continued climbing higher because of energy; core inflation continued falling despite rising medical care inflation. As you can see f
Stocks On A Rampage: Recent Returns Signal A Good 2020 Many predicted there would be a correction in January, but instead we have seen a continuation of this rally for the ages. S P 500 is already up 1.78% year to date. That’s almost half the gains expected for the entire year. In this article, I
Labor Market Growth Reviewed In this article, let's look at the December labor report. Job creation was solid, but missed estimates slightly. Also, wage growth fell sharply especially for production and non-supervisory workers. And, the underemployment (U6) rate hit a record low. The current differe
Stocks Decline, But They’re Still Overbought Stocks fell on Friday amidst the modestly disappointing jobs report, but they are still overbought. We need a flush lower to cleanse the market of euphoria, not a 0.29% decline. CNN fear and greed index only fell 2 points to 91 which is extreme greed. Usu
Initial Jobless Claims Fall Again Before reviewing the BLS non-farm payrolls report, let's look at the jobless claims report from Thursday since it is generating a lot of discussion. These discussions draw from the spike in continuing claims versus the decline in initial claims. It’s worth noting th
Another Rally: Solid Jobs Report Awaits Predictions for a correction in January have proven to be wrong. Especially so far as the market rallied again on Thursday to a new record high. S P 500 has rallied on each of the past 4 days prior to the non-farm payrolls report. The table below shows the est
CEO Confidence Improved CFO confidence improved in Q4, but most see a recession in the intermediate term. That's a positive because firms are planning to raise wages quicker and expect earnings to increase faster. Businesses being more conservative can lessen the risk of a slowdown turning into a re
Stocks Recover After Geopolitical Fears Fade New trends appears to be: a geopolitical event occurs, stocks selloff, and then they recover to new highs. Obviously, that’s an oversimplification of the action because stocks are also reacting to earnings and economic reports. U.S. defense secretary stat
Redbook Retail Sales Growth In the week of January 4th, Redbook same store sales growth fell from 7.8% to 6.1%. The month looks to be starting off on solid footing. It will be interesting to see the impact of the minimum wage increases. A modest decline in the expectations index in the Conference Bo
Stocks Fall Slightly (Geopolitical Risk Increases) The stock market fell slightly on Tuesday, but that might be just the beginning of the decline. Stocks fell after hours because at least 12 ballistic missiles were fired at an Iraqi airbase that hosts American troops. Iran claimed responsibility for
