Our First Official Recession Signal Everyone knows the economy is headed for a recession. Only questions are how long and deep it will be. This is the most unusual situation many have ever seen. Even in the terrible financial crisis, people didn’t know a recession has started as late as Q2 2008. We
Another Huge Decline Lately we have been seeing stocks do the opposite of what they did the previous day. Stocks fell Thursday, were up on Friday, fell on Monday, were up on Tuesday, and fell on Wednesday. Wednesday was another steep decline. But stocks managed to just barely avoid a new bear market
JP Morgan Calls For A Depression If you think the U.S. economy is headed for a recession, you should buy stocks. That’s a sentence I never thought I would write. Turns out, stocks have already fallen about 30%. On average, stocks fall 37% in recessions. You don’t have much downside left if this is j
Stocks Rally Off Beaten Down Levels S P 500 had its 7th straight day of a 4% or greater move which is the longest streak in history. Previous record was 6 days in 1929. The market hasn’t been up on back to back days for 23 sessions which is the longest streak since the fall of 2018
Sharp Decline Incoming Base case scenario is a sharp decline in economic activity and a rebound either in the 2nd half of this year or early next year. We know Q2 will be a ‘kitchen sink’ quarter where growth will be terrible. Main question is how quick the economy recovers from this weakness. Q2 es
Awe Inspiring Decline (Could Be Time To Buy) It may sound crazy, but when everything that can go wrong is going wrong and when it seems like there is no light at the end of the tunnel, being optimistic is the best bet. As you can see from the chart below, the S P 500 had
Worst Case Scenario Gets Worse It’s a sign of the unprecedented times we are living in that the Fed’s emergency rate cut over the weekend and new round of QE wasn’t even the biggest news discussed on Monday. That’s because we are seeing wholesale economic shutdowns previously thought to be impossibl
March Madness March Madness college basketball tournament was canceled, but March madness in markets is still going. Many investors who have been in the game for decades have said this is the craziest action they have ever seen. Personally, I followed markets during the 2007-2009 recession and concu
“V Shaped” Recovery Could Be Afoot With the volatility in stocks, few investors seem to care about economic analysis. However, now that we are beginning to get the weak data from March coming out, it will be interesting to assess the damage. Personally, I think once the shutdown is over, the economy
2020 Will Go Down In Infamy This is the worst market I’ve ever seen since I started following stocks in 2007. S P 500 is only down 26.67% from its peak, but it’s clear we aren’t at the trough yet. This is already a historic period and it’s not over. Usually we can contextualize negative events
