If you’re looking for signs that the US economy will steer clear of recession, don’t look at the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasurys: As Bloomberg’s Tracy Alloway noted on Monday, the curve is getting “flat as a pancake,” and that’s not generally a good sign for the economy. Bloomberg
We’ve talked quite a bit of late about bonds and stocks sending conflicting signals. In fact, the bond/stock mixed message was in many ways the most important takeaway from last week’s euphoric bounce off the post-Brexit lows. Here’s a look at how risk performed versus yields on US, German, and Japa
Last year, the Bureau of Economic Analysis did away with recessionary GDP prints through the magic of “residual seasonality.” The thing about numbers is that they don’t, generally speaking, lie. But statistics sure do. That’s because numbers are just numbers until humans start tinkering with them. O
As we head into the holiday weekend, why not think about China? Actually, wait. Don’t answer that. It’s the 4th of July. Independence Day. So for US traders, that’s probably one reason not think too hard about China. Let’s try that again: as we head into the holiday weekend, it’s important to rememb
If you see something, buy something. That’s been the mantra since Tuesday. Put simply: it’s up. It’s all up. Every single bit of it. Stocks, oil, gold, Treasuries, bunds. All of it. UK equities have rallied an astounding 10% since Tuesday. And why not? It’s not like they just voted to leave the EU.
The British pound wasn’t the only thing stirring in FX markets on Thursday. Have a look at the EUR: Ok, so we know what happened at 11 am ET. As we detailed earlier, that was Bank of England governor Mark Carney telling everyone what they already knew - policy easing from the BoE is on
This is yet another one of those days where everything can pretty much be explained in one chart. Here it is: Bank of England governor Mark Carney gave his second speech since the Brexit vote on Thursday and all but assured the market that more BoE easing is in the cards. “The economic outlook has
First thing’s first. Here’s the only chart you need to make sense of the two-day risk-on move (i.e. the rally): You’ll likely see several versions of that throughout the rest of the day assuming equities hang on to outsized gains. Basically, Treasurys aren’t buying what stocks err … aren’t selling.
On Tuesday, we took a look at what works as a hedge during equity drawdowns. Last week, we took stock (no pun intended) of which companies and sectors were most exposed to Brexit and also to a rising dollar. No sooner had we finished analyzing where to turn in turbulent times than risk went crazy.
We’ve talked quite a bit about what companies and sectors are most vulnerable to Brexit and a rising dollar (see here and here). Let’s look, for a moment, at asset classes and equity drawdowns. Over the past several days, the need to hedge against long tail events has become readily apparent. Unfort
