We’ve seen some inexplicable moves in equities in the post-Trump election trading. It took a couple of days for me to realize the likely scenario which will play out over the next 4 years. To make an analogy, Trump is being put in the middle of a bank heist where the government is the robber
Investors have decided gold is not the place they want to be during the Trump administration. In the volatility following the election gold jumped about 2%, but it soon gave up that rally. Now it is actually down 4% from before the election results came out. There is a confluence of reasons why gold
This election has had a lot of vitriol. As a counter reaction to the politically correct culture, Trump has tweeted statements which were outside of the norm. It’s tough to say whether his opponents were actually offended or if they chose to be offended because they disagreed with his polices. Eithe
This post-election period has been the most interesting in many decades. With Trump not being a politician, we didn’t have as good of an idea of what he would do as president as we usually do at this point in time. A lot of the breaking news reports to come out of the Trump administration
The market has become unhinged from reality in the past few years as investors have decided to ignore what companies are telling them and instead listen to what Fed officials are saying. If Fed officials say the labor market is strong and inflation is low, investors believe them. Maybe investors don
As I said in my last article, I was wrong about the market’s reaction to Trump winning. This wasn’t a Brexit market reaction. This was a reaction like we’ve seen to jobs reports in the past. The market goes up whether there is a good or bad report. In this case, the market would find
Against the odds and what most analysts predicted, President-Elect Trump pulled off a convincing victory in the Electoral College where he may reach 300 votes. He outperformed and won in some states which were thought to be blue: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and likely Michigan. He won the swing states
When I say diversification against bubbles, I would argue the current state of the markets makes now the most difficult time to invest in many decades. I get asked what to invest in constantly by friends and family. While this would appear normal, the reason why I get asked this question is not. I m
In my previous article I mentioned that betting on the market based on the election result is a bad idea because there's a lot of uncertainty. I’m still perplexed as to why the market rallied so much today when nothing is certain. If you did know who was going to win, I would only make
The reason why I didn’t get caught up completely in the 9 day sell-off was because the market was falling for the wrong reasons. Based on my work, I think earnings won’t recover in 2017 and the economy will continue weakening. The market has been ignoring weak earnings and weak economic growth for a
