The decision by the Fed was mainly covered by the press as the third rate hike since the financial crisis, but I contest the biggest story is the new stance to avoid shrinking the balance sheet in the medium-term. Heading into the meeting, I made a convoluted prediction in that I expected the Fed to
The Fed announced it raised rates 25 basis points in its March statement. Furthermore, it stated it would be raising rates two more times in 2017 and three times in 2018. Finally, Yellen stated there wouldn’t be any near-term movement to unwind the Fed’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet. There is a lot t
In this article, I will discuss my prediction of what the Fed will do on Wednesday. I am writing this article before the announcement, but you may be reading it afterwards. It’s still valuable insight because it gives you an idea of where the Fed is in the monetary cycle. The three parts to discuss
The stock market fell slightly on Tuesday as it prepares for the Fed to hike rates on Wednesday. In this article, I will discuss the latest changes to the macro environment, namely the decline in sentiment surveys and the increase in the producer price index which may soon reverse because of falling
In this article, I will review the latest charts which show the speculative craze the stock market is in. Then, I will update you on the latest information on the GOP’s healthcare plan. On Tuesday, the NFIB will release its latest survey on business optimism; it has been the poster child for the pos
This week is going to be centered around the Fed’s decision on interest rates on Wednesday. This rate hike will be met with much less angst than the previous two as investors become accustomed to the Fed raising rates at a faster clip than 25 basis points per year. The decision on rates will be
In this article, I will discuss the latest developments in European monetary policy and review an interesting chart which shows historical real labor unit costs, but first I will react to the breaking news about bitcoin which was released Friday afternoon. Bitcoin ETF Denied The, much heralded by th
In this article, I will review the latest jobs report. I will then explain what it means for the market and monetary policy. As you can see in the chart on the right, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the non-farm payrolls employment increased 235,000 which beat the upwardly revised expectatio
We are in an interesting time for equity investing because productivity is stuck in a rut, yet stocks are levitating higher. Since productivity growth drives economic growth, there’s no way stocks can rally in the long-term without it. I think both will correct as productivity growth will likely rev
The bearish theses I have had for the past few weeks have been coming to fruition in the past few days. The reward for being correct has thus far been less than a 2% correction in the S P 500. The tilt is clearly positive. Being precisely correct on two negative catalysts still hasn’t brought a
