The markets have reversed some the recent trends where the Trump trade was unwinding. This could mean there will be a pause or a continuation of the Trump trade into the spring. The S P 500 is up less than 1% from the lows of the mini-correction. There are many dip-buyers who are praying for a
Before I get into the meat of this article, I will provide supporting evidence and clarification for points I made in a previous article. I described the recent political polarization which has occurred in consumer sentiment surveys. In the Gallup survey below, you can see how Republicans have becom
Much is being made of the GOP’s fiscal policy because of the shift in monetary policy towards hawkishness and because there’s a high amount of uncertainty over what legislation will be passed and when it will be passed. The chart below is Barclay’s estimation of when various policies will be passed
The S P 500 rallied 0.72% on Tuesday, ending the sell-off which was driven by the GOP’s failure to deliver healthcare reform. The hope trade is not going away easily even though many of the market supporting factors have gone away or gotten weaker. The stock market is like a Jenga game. Taking away
Stocks are slightly off their all-time high, but remain over extended according to most valuation metrics. The hope investors have is for tax cuts. Even though the GOP appears dysfunctional, all its members want to cut taxes. All hope for a tax cut isn’t lost, but the difficult part is finding cuts
The stock market sold off moderately on Monday due to the continued negative momentum caused by the failed GOP healthcare bill. There is talk of Paul Ryan possibly being removed from the Speaker of the House position which is something I discussed previously. Ordinarily, that would be bearish for st
The stock market doesn't seem to be reflecting the economic weakness we are seeing. The bullish counterpoint to any negative data is that the economy will improve due to fiscal stimulus. The latest blunders in the attempt to pass healthcare reform makes fiscal stimulus seem less likely. To simplify
The stock market fell slightly on Friday because Ryancare failed to pass the House once again. In my last article, I laid out two possibilities for why President Trump pushed ahead with wanting a vote on Friday. It ended up that the GOP didn’t have the votes and he was expressing frustration with th
The latest news regarding the healthcare vote is it will happen on Friday. That could either mean enough votes have been gathered for it to pass or it could mean President Trump is frustrated with the process and wants to get it over with even if it could fail to get a majority. I don’t
The stock market sold off in response to the news that the healthcare bill’s vote in the House of Representatives wasn’t going to take place Thursday. As I said, the leadership usually doesn’t put up a vote if it knows it will lose. Once leadership realized it would lose, they postponed the vote. Wh
