Tech Dominates Factor ETFs Today was a rare day because as the S P 500 rose 0.83% to a new record high, the Shiller PE went above 30 for the first time in this bull market. Since the 1880s, the Shiller PE has only been above 30 from August to September 1929, from June 1997 to
The great Q1 earnings season is driving the bullish narrative as investors see this as an all clear sign to buy stocks hand over fist. However, the bulls argued during the earnings recession that the temporary blip lower was because of energy. Now, the temporary blip higher is driven by energy, but
This article will serve to clarify some of the unclear points I have made in the past few articles. It’s important to analyze how you can be wrong to avoid sticking to bad bets when the tide begins to turn. For example, if you’re bearish on oil, but know which factors could push it higher,
Record Streak For Nasdaq 100 I am attempting to contextualize the recent rally in tech stocks. In doing so there will be some bearish points and some bullish points. Also, keep in mind that some tech stocks have better fundamentals than others. I consider it to be bearish when new records are made i
Besides oil pressuring inflation, it looks like shelter inflation is also starting to decline. As you can see from the chart below, both shelter inflation and rent inflation are coming down. This is logical because apartment real estate prices are starting to come down as it appears there were too m
My prediction for Fed policy was wrong. As a reminder, I was looking for a dovish hike based on the latest disinflation, but instead the Fed didn’t deviate much from its policy. There was a stark difference between reality and what the Fed spoke about today as the core CPI and the headline CPI misse
Just as I forecasted, the tech stock selloff ended Wednesday as the Nasdaq rose 0.73%. The S P 500, Russell 2000, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average all hit an all-time closing high. The ECB’s $60 billion in bond buying per month combined with investors putting money into ETFs with a “buy the dip”
Monday’s market action was like Friday’s action in that the S P 500 closed nearly flat (down 0.1%) and the Nasdaq underperformed as it was down 0.52%. Adding to the weakness in the riskiest markets was bitcoin and ethereum which cratered in the afternoon. Bitcoin fell from $2,997 to $2,519. Some exc
The chart below explains why inflation has been falling lately in Europe and in America. It shows the change in the year over year Bloomberg commodities index. There is a clear trend of disinflation led by oil. Wage inflation isn’t accelerating, so there’s no reason to expect any of the headline inf
Friday was a great day for the market as most sectors were up. Energy and the financials did well as the S P energy sector was 2.48% and the S P financials sector was up 1.93%. However, in the afternoon the technology sector had a bit of a flash crash led by NVIDIA which was down 6.46%
