Amazing ADP Report- Economy Could Run Hot The labor reports have become more important lately because they help us determine if the economy is running hot. A bad report is usually considered a one-off event. It’s sometimes blamed on the weather; investors expect it to be revised higher. A solid repo
Gary Cohn Resigns The President’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, plans to resign. This likely means the tariffs will go through in some manner because he was staunchly against them. Cohn brought stability to the economic team and was a big proponent of the tax cuts. Obviously, the tax cuts have
Earnings Estimates Done Going Up There has been a sharp multiple compression this year which makes it less likely stocks will crater. Stocks had a correction in February, but are up year to date. The compression has come from earnings estimates increasing dramatically in the past 3 months. As you ca
Italian Election: Big Win For Anti-Establishment The Italian election was on Sunday. It came and went with little response from the markets. However, since I’m a fundamental investor, I look at events the market isn’t focusing on now, but might focus on in the future. If you’re only looking at what
Tariffs Dominate Headlines The tariffs on steel and aluminum have continued to dominate the headlines as the story hasn’t gone away as some expected. President Trump doesn’t appear to be backing down on his proposal even as House Speaker Paul Ryan, the Club for Growth, and the Heritage Foundation al
The Major Indexes Rebound The stock market started to look past the trade war fears on Friday as the S P 500 was up 0.51% and the Nasdaq was up 1.08%. The Russell 2000 was up 1.71% because smaller firms, who don’t do much international business, could be helped by protectionism. Overall, it will hur
Powell Spoke On Thursday In the midst of the uncertainty surrounding the potential tariffs on steel and aluminum, Fed chair Powell spoke to the Senate Banking Committee. It clearly wasn’t focused on as much as the Tuesday testimony. However, it was still important in my opinion. As expected, there w
Stocks Fall On Worries About A Trade War After the market had declined for a couple days over fears of a hawkish Fed, many wondered if stocks would rally on Thursday after investors hear Powell give a neutral testimony. Stocks were up in the morning, but then they cratered hard after news of Preside
Worst Decline In 2 Years With the S P 500 falling 2.37% in the past two trading days, February closed with a whimper. Sometimes new money flows in on the first day of the month, so we’ll see how that plays out on Thursday. As you can see from the chart below, February was down 3.24% which
Stocks Decline On Wednesday Yesterday, I challenged the market by saying it really wasn’t worried about Powell’s potential hawkishness. I said if stocks were really worried, they would be down more. The market answered the bell on Wednesday by falling at the end of the trading session. The S P 500 f
