Stellar December Labor Report - Expectations Were Grim For The December Jobs Report Heading into the December jobs report, which was released on Friday, January 4th, the S P 500 was 4.12% above its bear market trough. One of the top conversation topics in the financial media before the report was re
Apple Pre-Announces Negative Results Apple had a bad Q1 even though overall U.S. retail sales were great. The firm lowered its Q1 revenue guidance from a range of $89 billion-$93 billion to $84 billion. This wildly missed the Street’s consensus for $91.3 billion. Furthermore, the firm’s gross margin
Market Predictions - Still Expecting A Trade Deal Between America China 2018 was a tumultuous year for markets partially because of the uncertainty caused by U.S. trade policy. Deals were made with countries such as Canada and Mexico. But the tensions with China were ratcheted up much of the year. T
Stocks Crater After Fed Meeting Even though stocks entered Wednesday near the low for the year, they fell even more after the Fed’s decision and press conference. Specifically, the S P 500 fell 1.54%, the Nasdaq fell 2.17%, and the Russell 2000 fell 2.03%. S P 500’s 14 day RSI fell to 31.93 which me
Hawkish Hike - The Fed Raises Rates And Lowers Guidance Slightly Fed raised the Fed funds rate 25 basis points and the IOER by 20 basis points. Fed funds rate’s range increased from 2%-2.25% to 2.25%-2.5%. Guidance for rate hikes in 2019 fell from 3 to 2. I projected the Fed would hike rates and
WTI Oil - Slight Tuesday Rally: Stocks Still Oversold Before we get into WTI Oil, let's review the stock market. S P 500 was up one basis point on Tuesday which means it is still right at the low for the year. Nasdaq increased 0.45% and the Russell 2000 fell 7 basis points. Because of the
Stocks Primed For A Rally The stock market is uncertain about the possibility of a trade war and a hawkish Fed. However, I think a trade deal will be struck and the Fed will pull back on its hawkish 2019 guidance. Specifically, I expect the Fed to hike rates on Wednesday and guide for either
Bear Market - Another Terrible Day Of Selling In the short term, I was very wrong to be bullish as of Friday’s close. Stocks fell sharply on Monday, which makes them even more oversold. It’s almost as if the market is doing whatever it takes to get the Fed to not hike rates on Wednesday.
Strong Control Group - Real Wages Monthly decline in weekly hours worked hurt real weekly wage growth. But overall the November growth was still positive which means there was improvement. This has been a relatively strong cycle for real wage growth. You can’t expect growth to average 1%-2%. Anythin
