Non-Recessionary - Weak, But Not Disastrous Manufacturing PMIs June ended up being Non-Recessionary which shocked many investors. Calls for a recession grew louder. Despite the stock market at its all time high and weakness in the regional Fed manufacturing reports. Some investors were prepared for
June Dow - Amazing First Half Ends On A High Note June Dow is the best since 1938. Also, the best first half we've seen in many years ended on a high note. S P 500 increased 0.58%, Nasdaq increased 0.48%. And Russell 2000 increased 1.29% on Friday. As you can see from the chart below,
Core Inflation - May PCE Report Details In May, headline PCE Core Inflation was 0.2% monthly. That beat estimates for 0.1%, but was below April’s reading of 0.3%. On a yearly basis, PCE was 1.5% which beat estimates for 1.4%, but fell from 1.6% in April. The all important core PCE inflation rate was
Financials Rally - Stocks Finally Rally Financials Rally as we finally see the stock market rally. The 4 day decline wasn’t much of a losing streak. There was only bad day out of the four. The decline ended on Thursday. S P 500 increased 0.38%. Unlike Wednesday, this time the gains were maintained.
Improved Pending Home Sales - Core Durable Goods Orders Weak, but Not Declining Before getting into Improved Pending Home Sales, let's review Durable Goods. The economic surprise index has been cratering in America. But it’s barely negative in Europe. It’s at -68.1 in America and -0.3 in Europe. In
Stocks Await Results - 4th Straight Decline Stocks Await Results of the G20 Summit. Saying stocks have declined 4 straight days sounds worse than it is. The market is only down 1.37% from its record high. A scary aspect for the bulls is the market has peaked at around the same level 4 times now. Yes
Weak New Home Sales - March 2020 Recession Signal Weak New Home Sales may signal a recession. The May new home sales report wasn’t good. A negative revision to the March reading means the cycle high was November 2017. You can see this from the chart below. Median new home sales peak occurs 28 months
Stocks Fall on Hawkish Fed - Big Tuesday Decline Let's discuss Stocks Fall on Hawkish Fed. The stock market fell sharply on Tuesday. Partially because of the weak consumer confidence report. And partially because Bullard was less dovish. It’s surprising stocks weren’t down more when you consider how
Tariffs - Redbook Sales Growth Weakens Slightly Before getting into Tariffs, let's review Redbook. Redbook same store sales growth reading in the week of June 22nd was more interesting than usual. On Tuesday the consumer confidence report came out. Investors want to know if the decline in consumer c
