Stocks Rally On Unexpected Bipartisan Stimulus Proposal
Another Massive Rally It didn’t seem like the market had the capability to have another massive rally since the NAAIM index is at a 2020 high as stocks were very overbought prior to Tuesday. We’ve already gotten the vaccines. There will be news in the next few weeks on their distribution. The first Moderna shipments…
How Was Cyber Monday?
Cyber Monday Disappoints Adobe Heading into Cyber Monday, we knew it was going to be a bonanza for online shopping because of the pandemic. According to Adobe Analytics, holiday shoppers spent $10.8 billion online which was up 15.1% from last year. That was way below Adobe’s estimate for $12.7 billion. Remember, NRF expects 20% to…
November 2020 Was A Historic Month
November Ends As it turns out, November ended on a sour note. However, we can’t let that make us miss out on one of the most amazing months in market history. Combined factors that were the market entering the month oversold, the election hedges unwinding, and 3 successful vaccines coming out all helped stocks do…
Holiday Shopping Results Are In
BAC Data Was Good We are starting to get holiday sales data which tells us the true health of the consumer. Initial results are great for online shopping and terrible for in person shopping which is what we expected. The chart below shows the only data that was positive heading into the holiday shopping season…
Retail Favorites Like Tesla Win Big
Small Thanksgiving Eve Decline (Tesla Rallies Again!) 70% of the time stocks rise the day before Thanksgiving, but they didn’t on Wednesday. Some investors don’t make anything of this decline. The market is overbought and few speculative stocks are dramatically too high. This decline doesn’t mean the market will regain its sanity. In fact, the…
Bad Pre-Holiday Economic Data
Early Jobless Claims Because of the Thanksgiving holiday, jobless claims came out a day early, and they were terrible. This is the 2nd week of bad numbers which signals the labor market is getting worse because of COVID-19. This won’t be a double dip recession. But December will be a bad month for the economy. Last…
Makings Of A Stock Market Bubble
This Is A Bubble There is a ton of euphoria in the market. Reopening stocks are on fire and the overall indexes keep hitting records outside of the Nasdaq which is 16 basis points from a record. This isn’t exactly how we expected this to play out as many were bearish on large cap growth…
How The Consumer Is Doing Headed Into Black Friday
We May See 2% Holiday Shopping Growth The consumer will probably weaken in the next few weeks as the spread of COVID-19 is coming at the worst time for the economy. Some thought the expectation for 3.6% to 5.2% growth was too high. There will be low single digit growth. That will specifically call for…
It’s A Party For Short Sellers - Great Opportunities Are Here
Is This The Greatest Market For Short Sellers Ever? Yes, this is the greatest market for short sellers ever. To be clear, that doesn’t mean the overall market is going to fall by the most ever. Shorting the overall market is generally a hedge. Short sellers find bad companies that are valued too highly. In…
NRF Optimistic About Holiday Spending
Consumer Is A Mystery Undoubtedly, this is the hardest holiday shopping season to predict ever. Normally, retail sales are hard to predict, but usually it’s not difficult to get within a couple of percentage points of the result. This current season is an order of magnitude tougher. As a hypothetical, if someone predicted 3.5% growth…