Ignore The Crash In The Chicago PMI
Homeownership Rate Strengthens Homeownership rate has been on a tear in the past couple quarters as the housing market seems to be nearly fully recovered from the bubble in the 2000s. Even though the recession ended in 2009, as you can see in the chart below, the rate continued to decline until bottoming in Q2…
Modest Q4 GDP Growth & Improved Homeownership Rate
2.1% Q4 GDP Growth Year over year GDP growth was 2.3% and quarter over growth was 2.1% which exactly met estimates and was at the high end of my expected range (1.7% to 2.1%). St. Louis Fed Nowcast was exactly correct even though its final reading doesn’t come out until Friday. This seems to have…
Amazon Beats Earnings Estimates & Coronavirus Threat Grows
Coronavirus Deemed Global Health Emergency WHO stated the coronavirus is a global health emergency. Sure enough, stocks rallied on Thursday just like the historical charts suggested would happen. U.S. stock market investors see this issue as a short-term one-time event. The coronavirus likely won’t have a major impact on America. JETS airline ETF rose 0.72%…
Microsoft & Tesla Rise While Facebook Falls (On Earnings)
Microsoft’s Blowout Earnings It was yet another great earnings report for Microsoft which continues to fire on all cylinders. This was Microsoft’s 2Q 2020. The firm reported EPS of $1.51 which destroyed estimates for $1.32. Revenues were $36.91 billion which beat estimates for $35.68 billion. Revenues were up 14% yearly. Its stock is up 63%…
Pending Home Sales Index Falls The Most Since 2010
Home Price Growth Rises Again Even though yearly FHFA home price growth fell very slightly, it has been clear for the past few months that home price growth is bottoming. Monthly price growth in the 20 city Case Shiller index was 0.5% in November which beat estimates and the prior reading of 0.4%. Monthly non-seasonally…
Investors Ignore Coronavirus & Bid Up Apple On Its Great Report
Stocks Rebound Despite Coronavirus Fears The stock market rebounded on Tuesday after its sharp decline on Monday related to the coronavirus. Even though it doesn’t seem like the increase in cases has slowed, markets looked past this issue. It makes you wonder if the virus was just an excuse to sell stocks because they were…
Manufacturing Expected To Rebound In Q1
Weak Durable Goods Orders December durable goods orders report was weak as it signaled there will be weak business investment growth in Q4. We already knew business investment would likely fall. This just reiterates that perspective. Hope is capex recovers in 2020 since the regional Fed manufacturing reports have been strong. Monthly durable goods orders…
Coronavirus Sends Stocks Lower - Bernie Sanders Is The Favorite
The Streaks Are Over! Stocks fell on Monday, ending the streak without back to back down days. It ended at 30 days, tying the longest streak since 1955. Furthermore, the 1.57% decline ended the S&P 500’s streak without a 1% decline. It reached 74 days which tied the one ending in October 2018. There were…
New Home Sales Miss Estimates, But Housing Market Is Still Solid
Disappointing New Home Sales December new home sales report wasn’t great because November’s reading was revised lower and December’s reading missed the low end of the estimate range. It’s not consistent with the recent strength in housing data especially housing starts, but it’s not weak enough to suggest a new trend is forming. Specifically, in…
Record Nasdaq 100 Rally
Modest Decline On Coronavirus Fears On Friday stocks couldn’t outlast the coronavirus fears like they did on Thursday as the S&P 500 fell 0.9%. The market just avoided a 1% drawdown, as it rallied slightly in the afternoon. There have now been 72 days without a 1% move either way in the S&P 500. Nasdaq…