Is Steven Mnuchin A Step In The Wrong Direction?
I want to continue my discussion of Steven Mnuchin to fully contextualize his impact on the Trump administration. With the decision to hire Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary, we have received a great amount of information on how the next four years will look. I will explain the two possible directions the administration can go in…
Kellogg’s Feels The Breitbart Effect
Kellogg's vs. Breitbart. The reason I did an article on the controversy surrounding Grubhub’s CEO’s comments about employing bigoted workers was because I noticed a tidal wave size trend of Trump supporters getting outraged at consumer brands for offending them. I said we are living in a new world where it is the political right’s…
Steven Mnuchin Picked As Treasury Secretary
Yesterday I posted an article about why John Allison would be a great pick as Treasury Secretary. As few hours later, Trump picked Steven Mnuchin, the finance chairman of his campaign, to be his Treasury Secretary. Trump may have met with John Allison to seek his incite opposed to actively considering him for the role.…
YouTube’s Algorithm Determines Its Future
YouTube's algorithm is at the heart of the most popular online video website in the world. What determines its future success is actually the most secretive part of the website. This black box is the algorithm. This mathematical formula determines what content you see. It’s similar to the Netflix algorithm which suggests new movies and…
Trump May Pick John Allison For Treasury Secretary
Investors are going along with the same belief system voters had when they chose Trump. Trump has taken multiple positions on issues which caused his supporters to envision their personal opinions on Trump and assume he was fighting for them. Investors are imagining the best possible scenario where he’s pro-business (possible), in favor of free…
No Need for Predictions
Investors are pricing in the pricking of the asset bubbles without selling equities. Bulls believe stocks will continue to rise even if interest rates increase even though they supported their claims for high equity valuations by saying interest rates are low. At all market peaks market consensus is wrong, but the current situation is much…
Italy - Risk On
The Italian election next week will be the beginning of the end of the European Union. Without Italy’s support the entire system breaks down. This will likely cause volatility in the market which will be tough for central banks to quell. The political tremors from Greece in 2012 will be realized in the next few…
Brexit - Part Three
While stocks, real estate, and sovereign debt may be in bubbles, there is a bigger bubble than them all. That bubble is the political bubble. Unlike other bubbles, there is no way to measure the feelings of citizens. The polls tend to underrepresent populist support much like analysts over represent earnings expectations. There’s no PE…
Faith Isn't a Strategy
When I refer to investors being optimistic, I am referring to multiple expansion. If earnings are rising then stocks going up is not evidence of optimism; it is an example of sound judgement. The optimism we’re seeing in this market is blind. It ignores any negative factor and only focusses on the positives. It will…
Unwarranted Optimism
The optimism in the market is unwarranted and unfounded. It’s amazing how the mainstream media concluded Trump would bad for the economy and then investors changed their minds and bought stocks after he won. The Fed’s bubble stock market hasn’t dealt with reality this entire recovery, so it’s not a big shock. In fact, Trump’s…