Weak April Labor Report
Headline April BLS Report Misses Estimates April was another weak month for the labor market. Despite the strong ADP report, the BLS report only showed 164,000 jobs created as you can see in the chart below. The consensus estimate was for 191,000 jobs created. This caused the unemployment rate to fall 3.9% which was below…
Stocks At A Critical Juncture As Support & Resistance Converge
President Trump Will Decide On Iran Deal On Tuesday The S&P 500 was up 0.34% on Monday and the Russell 2000 was up 0.89%. There was a modest pullback in the afternoon which some blamed on Trump’s tweet which stated he will announce his decision on the Iran deal at 2:00 PM tomorrow. If you think the President will continue…
Weaker Than Expected ISM Non-Manufacturing Report
Another Disappointing ISM Report The April non-manufacturing ISM PMI was 56.8 which missed expectations for 58.4. Just like the manufacturing ISM report, it even missed the low end of the range which was 57.3. I’m starting to look for some signs of green shoots in the economy, but we aren’t seeing any in the ISM…
Elon Musk Blows Up On Call Saying Questions Were “Boring” & “Not Cool”
Tesla Reports The Usual Losses Tesla reported a relatively normal quarter for the company. It’s used to reporting major losses as it ramps up its production of the Model 3. The goal is to get to 5,000 cars produced per week. The firm lost $3.35 in EPS which actually beat estimates by 6.5 cents. The…
Apple Stock Rallies On Buyback Despite Weak iPhone Sales
Apple Utilizing Cash To Push Stock Up There were a lot of worries about Apple’s iPhone sales headed into this quarter as a few suppliers missed their estimates because of the iPhone. This caused analysts to lower their estimates for iPhone sales heading into this quarter. Overall, Apple reported decent results, but the iPhone shipments…
ISM Manufacturing Misses Estimates
Peak Economic & Earnings Growth? The debate among investors is whether growth has peaked. I think economic growth peaked in 2017. The blue chip average is at 3.1% growth for Q2, so that’s not settled yet. The main problem with the 2018 economy is expectations were so high headed into it. If 2018 growth is…
Stocks Face A Hawkish Fed & Rising Inflation
Technically The Market Is In A Pickle The S&P 500 was down 0.82% on Monday despite the fabulous earnings results. Some investors are looking for Apple’s earnings after the bell on Tuesday to turn the tide, but I think that’s a dubious hope. Even if it beats estimates, one stock can’t turn the market especially since the other FAANG…
Great Headline Earnings Results. What’s Wrong With The Market?
Amazing Earnings Season The Q1 earnings season has been a big success when looking at the overall headline numbers. As of 10:30 AM Monday, 273 firms reported earnings. 78% of firms beat EPS estimates while having aggregate growth of +25%. 75% of firms beat their sales estimates with +10% growth. These numbers are all courtesy of The…
Stocks Flat Despite Great Earnings From Amazon & Microsoft
Friday was yet another example of stocks shrugging off great earnings results as the tech heavy Nasdaq was flat despite earnings beats from Amazon and Microsoft. Even though there are some rational explanations for why stocks aren’t moving after great results, namely rising interest rates, it’s still amazing to see it in action because it…
GDP Growth Is 2.3%, But The Underlying Numbers Are Weak
GDP Growth Is 2.3% Real GDP growth was almost exactly in the middle of my GDP growth forecast as it was 2.3%. Let’s quickly bury the narrative that this first quarter was the quickest Q1 since 2015. That analysis doesn’t make sense because it’s illogical to compare quarter over quarter growth on a year over…