Something Just Broke the Markets
It looks like we have a victor from the latest battle in the bond market, and this round goes to the bears. After last week’s stronger-than-expected payroll report, we saw interest rates spike, and bond prices were crushed lower. My cyclical factors were pointing to the dangers of this move, and while I still think…
Battle of the Bonds!
Well, that’s a wrap for Q1 2024! Markets did not disappoint in the slightest, as stocks across the board hit new all-time highs (save for the Russell 2000).But as we are in the precipice of a new quarter, there are some notable shifts taking place, not only within the stock market, but also within the…
The Sellers Are Kicking Off the Action This Quarter
The second quarter of 2024 is here, and so far the sellers are running the table. Bonds are selling off and the prospect of a 5% 10-year Treasury yield looks closer than it has in a long time. Investors there have made their decision on inflation. Stocks are bleeding out, too, led by the tech…
This will Determine the Next Move for Stocks
Market radar is strongly honed in on the bond market right now. Whether it breaks to the upside or downside will likely be a major determining factor in terms of sector leadership in the stock market. Will growth, tech, and communications continue to outperform or will we start to see the inflation trade reignite in…
Powell Could Spoil the Fun as Stocks Coil Near All-Time Highs
We’re seeing some powerful sector rotation just under the surface of the market… There are huge opportunities to profit now in energy, basic materials, the industrials, and consumer staples. That’s the good news. The perhaps-not-so-great news is that we’re now seeing the kind of price action typically witnessed in later stages of the equity market…
Stocks Are Testing New Highs as Inflation Comes in Hot (Again)
The headwinds are blowing stronger and stronger, but most stocks are still defying gravity and, in a lot of cases, common sense. All three big indexes were looking strong in late trading today. And this is all despite the fact that we got a hotter-than-expected CPI report this morning. But Bitcoin, which, along with gold,…
It's Looking Scary Out There - Here's What to Do About It
There have been a few times over the past couple of weeks where we’ve seen warning signals flash and stocks start to waver. It goes a little something like this: The mood turns risk-off, the mega-bulls calling the shots in chipmakers and tech start to falter, and defensive plays like gold and bonds start to…
Stocks Are “Coiling” Near All-Time Highs - Mania Could Be Next
If you’ve gotten the sense lately that something is building, you’re not wrong. We’ve seen hyper-concentration in the biggest stocks, to the point where plenty of us are focused on just one. People are chasing crowded stocks and trades, bidding up stocks to nosebleed levels. And yet, tech is still strong. We can tell from…
The Selloff is Gaining Traction - Let's Look at Potential Opportunities
If you’ve been able to make my daily trading room sessions, the selling of the past few days hasn’t been a surprise at all. The warning signs have been building and we’ve caught every single one. In fact, I’ve been doing everything short of pounding the table that we should expect downward pressure in the…
The Warnings We’ve Seen Lately Are Coming True
Over the past few weeks, we’ve talked about some of the various unsettling intermarket signals, like the strengthening dollar, that have come across the screens. Today, in the wake of a higher-than-expected inflation reading, the danger that had been lurking “out there” is now in our laps. The greenback is getting even stronger, and stocks,…