Stocks Attempt to Make a Higher Low… But Caution Signals Are Flashing
Stocks are giving in the ol’ college try for a bounce here, but I continue to see warning signs internally. For one thing, the Japanese yen is rising - as are bonds, which tells me capital is still seeking refuge in safer areas of the market. So, there’s room for improvement. That’s not to say…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: Risk-Off Signals Are Flashing All Over
Hello TheoTrader, Markets went out at the lows last week, and made sure that we didn’t fall asleep at the wheel over the holiday weekend. What matters now (and what concerns me most) when it comes to stocks is what’s happening at an internal level. Over the past few weeks, I’ve shared some of…
The Yield Curve Has Steepened Again - Now What?
Well, one of the most significant macroeconomic developments in the past couple of years just unfolded. I’m talking about the “re-steepening” of the yield curve. A couple of years back, there was a fair bit of hysteria in the market when the curve inverted. That is, the 10-year Treasury yield began offering less return than…
September Is Showing Us Just How Rough It Can Be
I guess the “animal spirits” wanted to make sure we were paying attention after the three-day holiday weekend… September is historically one of the weakest, and by some measures the weakest, months for stocks. They’ve managed September gains only around 41% of the time going all the way back to 1897. Today we got a…
Why I’m Zeroed in on Tech Right Now
Now that we’ve got Nvidia’s earnings out of the way, our focus needs to be on a broader rebound in the tech sector, and specifically on the Nasdaq. This will be key especially in terms of the sustainability of this bull market in stocks. This is the Sector Bullseye newsletter, after all. And if you…
Nvidia’s Earnings Loom in the Summer Stock Snooze-Fest
To the casual observer, stocks look to be drifting around on a Lazy River ride, but the truth is, they’re consolidating their recent gains. This is actually bullish price action. But you can sense the palpable anticipation of Nvidia’s earnings report, which hits tomorrow. In my view, the reaction could set the tone for the…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: Real Estate Roars Back
Bears are still stuck playing defense in this market following the volatility earlier this month. But on Friday, Fed Chair Powell came out and confirmed what we already knew: Rate cuts are coming in September. To be clear, markets have already priced in these cuts. That’s why we’ve been seeing sectors associated with monetary…
Unpopular Opinion: The Recession Already Happened
The recent stock market rally seems to contradict predictions of an imminent economic slowdown. This illustrates the principle that sentiment follows price, not vice versa. Just a couple of weeks ago, many were anticipating an economic downturn by year-end. Even my A.I. Timing Webs model had me at over 40% cash at the beginning of…
Stocks Hit Pause as Economic Uncertainty Tempers the Rally
Stocks have been on a red-hot rally, but they’ve hit the brakes right at technical resistance, just as the charts predicted. Now, the market’s waiting with bated breath for this week’s FOMC minutes and the big showdown—Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. While gold is shining as the market’s strongest player, keep an eye on…
TheoTrade’s Tale of the Tape: Did Bulls Buck the Bears?
Bears felt the heat and were squeezed the entirety of last week, as bulls forced a close near the highs of the week on Friday. Markets also digested soft labor data, as well as retail spending numbers that came in above estimates. So, just like that - is the recession canceled? Not so fast -…