Debt Ceiling Disco Heats Up Early as S&P Surges Most Pre-Earnings Since 2009
We're about to wrap up the bank portion of earnings season as the debt ceiling discussions move to the fore. Is there any avoidance of "bumbling" into a solution? While earnings season hasn't derailed the S&P, it's the pre-earnings run that brings earnings guidance under the microscope. (SYF, TGT, CVX, CVE, HPQ, TME)...
Earnings Season Kicks Off This Week as S&P Earnings Estimates Slide
While Europe was closed today, the S&P struggled to find its footing as bank earnings will kick off the 1Q earnings season. While the S&P 500 has been grinding higher, earnings estimates and margins have continued to fade. While the bigger picture looks bleak, stocks have been surprising to the upside. (MU, AMD, BTG, SVM,…
Commodities Rock as Banks Look Out Below
OPEC news over the weekend caused oil to soar into backwardation today on significant option activity. While oil was rocketing higher, gold and silver saw significant option flows as higher inflation brought banks back into the light. High oil prices may make the inflation monster more formidable and will box the Fed in even more.…
Energy & Financials Lead, but the Flight to Quality has Begun
It's easy to get suckered into thinking the crisis is over and buy the most oversold stocks. For financials, this comes with significant risk as the "crisis" is just getting started and the eventual recession is virtually assured. With this backdrop, the quieter trade is toward quality and a Fed pivot. (OLPX, IAG, KGC, IBM,…
Is Gold Predicting The Fed's Move?
Bullish option trades on gold and precious metals stocks were aplenty today as we head into the FOMC policy statement on Wednesday. The trade appears to be leaning toward a dovish result as the committee is expected to release their outlook for interest rates. Will they deliver for the market? (PAAS, GLD, WPM, SVM, SYF,…
Bank Rout Sends Feds Scrambling as Investors Panic
A lot has changed over the past week as repricing of Federal Reserve interest rate policy last Tuesday had the options market betting on red for regional banks. Now that SVIB and SBNY have folded, do the Feds have what it takes to blow the next bubble or is more downside expected? Today's option trade…
Tesla Gaps Lower After Presentation...What's the Master Plan for TSLA & Market?
Investors didn't seem to appreciate the details of Tesla's "Master Plan 3" as the stock traded down as much as 8% following the open. Tesla appears to suffer from the same issues plaguing equity investors as the details of any sort of plan are short on specifics. Rising rates have pressured bonds and stocks as…
NVDA Earnings Pop Helps Tech Lead and the S&P Hold the Line
The market was on the verge of breaking a key short-term support, but the opening gap following the earnings report from NVDA helped buoy the market. The positive impact helped tech be the leading sector today along with Energy, but also helped the S&P 500 hold its key 4000 support level. (NVDA, BTU, ARKK, EEM,…
Rally Fades Amid Backdrop of Inflation & Volatility Risk
Today's hot PPI inflation data was supposed to bring the bears out of hibernation. However, the intraday rally seemingly proved the resilience of the bulls as they kept fighting the Fed. The bullish sentiment faded quickly in the last hour as bearish order was restored. With all of the talk of 0 DTE option volumes,…
Markets Spooked as Earnings Gaps Fade
It looked like a positive day, but as investors got jittery, positive earnings gaps faded from highs. First, there was news of a large put trade on the /ES puts, then it was rising yields on US Treasuries following a subpar 30-year auction. All eyes on next week's inflation data could make the end of…