Once again, we find ourselves locked in the volatility box. You remember: it’s tight, tense, and ready to snap.
This time we’ve got major cracks reappearing in the bond market - the market serious traders watch but everyone else ignores until it’s on fire.
Then again, serious traders understand just how systemically important bonds are, and they will threaten the S&P 500 as capital tries to rebalance in a crazy macro environment.
And when I say crazy, I’m not kidding around. Thursday morning Blake Young and I watched copper - boring-#% copper, one of the most reliable economic indicator-commodities on Earth - move 3% in minutes.
That’s because of tariffs. Because of a report of a “phone call” between Trump and Xi - nothing more substantive than that. Tariffs are still out there, still on the menu, and still capable of pushing the market over a cliff before you can say “hedge.”
Tonight, we’re going to make sure we’re positioned to handle tail risks and profit from it.