I’ll say it again, right away: The bears are making a comeback. The market hasn’t collapsed, not at all, but risk has most definitely broken the surface and shaken any kind of bull case you can think of.
The SPX expected move is… jumping, to put it politely; 96.83 this week out to 126.57 next week despite the shortened holiday session.
That says to me that markets are trying and failing to handicap the bat@%&~ assortment of macro risks out there right now. Tech’s looking resilient and if you’re going long there, I certainly won’t stop you, but you damn well better hedge.
I think bonds, and not any story in equities, are going to define the markets for the foreseeable future, and there is no easy fix there.
I’m going to show you some charts tonight that’ll help you get positioned before the headlines catch up to the markets.