The Rally Is Real… But Don’t Get Comfortable

If you’ve been with me for more than two-and-a-half minutes, you’ll know I’m the first one to call BS on a rally I think doesn’t have what it takes, that I’m sure will trap unwary traders and clean ‘em out.

This rally happens to be the real thing. After a really long stretch, volatility has declined in a meaningful way. Big tech earnings aren’t a fakeout; these guys really are leading the market right now. We’re up 90-plus handles today alone, and the Nasdaq wiped out its April losses.

But… I can’t give the all-clear yet. The rally’s real, yes, and it’s rewarding chumps hand over fist, but it’s on pretty thin ice.

There’s still way too much headline risk flying around out there - the trade war is a Tweet away from crushing gains, and today’s not-terrible nonfarm payrolls data probably gives the Fed the cover it needs to keep rates steady for the time being. There could be a clog in the hopium pipeline before long.

So tonight, I’ll show everyone where we really are, and the specific trades we can make to capture upside without risking too much...