Perhaps so. At 20% or so to date, that leaves room for as much as an additional 19% (relative to the starting all time high), and it would still a correct statement, for a total of a 39% "correction" (bear market). But likely isn't certainly, and it could end up being well beyond -40% before it's over too.

At the moment, in overnight futures, the 20% is now sitting at 23%, and /ES is falling like a rock.

Once again, no it's not like 2009; this is not a "financial" crisis. It's an epidemic crisis. Vastly different. It's very hard to project the breadth and depth of impact. But cool headed experts say there's potential for as much as 1/2 (or more!) of humanity to get it. One might expect the economic impact of that to be rather severe, both directly and due to what happens as people and governments strive very hard to AVOID getting it. Seems to me the market is operating on somewhat well grounded "fear", that is, discounting the more and more likely major economic slowdown in the future as it always does. Glad I've got significant shorts on tonight! And VERY glad I convinced some key friends and family to exit this market over the last 2 weeks for exactly this reason.

I also believe this is NO time to be starting to accumulate yet, as you suggested it might be. Far too much further downside risk. My $0.02. YMMV, I'm not a CTA, my comments are for educational and entertainment purposes only.

Your analysis is always predicated on hard economic evidence. Very reasonable, and why I read your excellent work here. But this is a unique exogenous circumstance moving much faster than economic data! Your discounting it until the data arrives, to use an analogy, is a bit like saying "well, we know the asteroid has a pretty good chance of hitting the earth, but it might not and until it does and we see the results economy, it's not rational to price it in so heavily". Not a perfect analogy but perhaps it makes the point.

T