Comments on: Depression Predictions Get Worse (Yes That’s Possible) https://archive.theotrade.com/depression-predictions-get-worse-yes-thats-possible/ Where the Professionals Come to Trade Tue, 24 Mar 2020 03:00:21 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0.2 By: Kevin Morgan https://archive.theotrade.com/depression-predictions-get-worse-yes-thats-possible/#comment-1552 Tue, 24 Mar 2020 03:00:21 +0000 https://archive.theotrade.com/?p=63176#comment-1552 The 2007-2009 we "just a recession". SPX dropped by 57%.

So why are you claiming that "just a recession" is fully priced in here at a drop of 30% or so? Doesn't make sense to me.

Last time we had a true depression, peak to trough was about -86%. Just for comparison's sake.

As for the GDP Q3 and Q4 estimates being so rosy...I'm reminded of typical software R&D scheduling. What's the date for delivery? It's always the earliest date no one can prove can't be met. I suspect those rosy GDP estimates are rather similar right now. The highest #'s that can't be proven to be too high.

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