https://archive.theotrade.com/consumers-wont-let-the-economy-fall-into-a-recession/ Where the Professionals Come to Trade Fri, 16 Aug 2019 22:22:19 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.0.2 https://archive.theotrade.com/consumers-wont-let-the-economy-fall-into-a-recession/#comment-1452 Fri, 16 Aug 2019 22:22:19 +0000 https://archive.theotrade.com/?p=54479#comment-1452 Retail sales will be fine until people start getting laid off. Yield curve first then jobs. 12 month average Unemployment rate is at 3.9%. When monthly rate exceeds 12 month average, look out below. It also is the most predictive of a recession, but instead of a 10-18 month lead. It is 3-6 months lead. Look on the Fed website to see relationship of unemployment rate vs. recessions.

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