Big Rally On Tuesday On Partial Tariff Removal Stocks rallied sharply on Tuesday as the market seems to be trendless; stocks take 2 steps forward and 2 steps back. A down day may have brought the market to new corrections lows. That was avoided because Trump delayed some of the tariffs. As I will de
CPI Beats Estimates Investors were caught leaning in the wrong direction as the July CPI report differed from the PPI report. It beat estimates, putting the Fed in more of a bind than most thought it would be in. There is still a 100% chance of a rate cut in September, but this makes rate
Big Stock Market Decline On Geopolitical News The stock market sold off significantly on Monday as investors feared the 10-2 year yield curve inversion and the bad geopolitical news. Specifically, in Argentina’s primary election President Mauricio Macri did much worse than expected which caused the
2019: The Year Of Higher Stocks Lower Yields Treasury bonds are in an extremely strong rally as inflation and growth expectations come down. I like to compare this situation to 2016 which is the last slowdown. In the summer of 2016, the 10 year yield hit its lowest level in history. It’s interesting
Stocks Decline, Ending A Wild Week Friday was emblematic of the week’s action as there were a couple big swings. The market opened lower and continued falling until about noon. The S P 500 was down about 1.25% at the low of the day. From that low to 3:40 PM, the S P 500 increased about 1%.
Core Inflation Falls The only major economic report that was released on Friday was the July PPI-FD (producer price index final demand) reading. It showed there was a big decline in core inflation which missed estimates significantly. Firstly, headline PPI was 0.2% on a monthly basis which met estim
More Than Half The Losses Have Been Regained This recent correction was the 4th quickest to -5% since the start of the bull market. That turned sentiment on its head as everyone freaked out about the trade war and economic weakness. In 3 days of rallies over half of the scary correction losses have
Jobless Claims Say To Buy Stocks Jobless claims have had a high correlation with stocks for a long time. Even though states have made it harder to file for claims, they still have stayed correlated with the market. It’s possible that claims aren’t accurate in their portrayal of this being the tighte
Huge Stock Market Reversal Wednesday was a very wild day for markets as the S P 500 cratered 1.75% in the morning and then regained its losses and closed up 8 basis points. That makes it seem like Wednesday was a huge victory even though the market took a round trip. The Nasdaq outperformed partiall
Recession Odds Increase Latest flattening of the yield curve implies the recession odds are increasing. To be clear, even if this indicator shows there is a 100% chance of a recession, that doesn’t mean it will happen. This is one of many indicators I use. Ever since the start of the year, investors
