Redbook Same Store Sales Growth Falls In the week of November 9th, yearly same store sales growth in the Redbook report fell from 5.5% to 5%. That’s exactly in between the prior 2 weeks which had growth of 4.5% and 5.5%. It doesn’t seem like November has been a great month so far. But keep
Time to Become Bearish? The stock market was extremely overbought entering this week, but rallied in 4 times as it increased 0.85%. However, the rally has only gotten more extreme. Which means we'll start seeing more bearish than many have recently been. Personally, I’m extremely bearish on the shor
Consumer Credit Disappoints Monthly growth in consumer credit missed estimates sharply in September. In August, monthly growth was revised from $17.9 billion to $17.8 billion. As you can see in the chart below, there was only a $9.5 billion increase in consumer credit. It missed estimates for $15 bi
Huge Day For Markets Because Of Trade Reports Positive news on trade pushed the S P 500 and Nasdaq to new record highs and the 10 year yield much higher. It nearly hit my 2% target. That was quicker than expected. S P 500 was up decently for most of the day, but lost some steam in
Productivity Growth Falls Unit Labor Cost Growth Rises In Q3, productivity growth fell and unit labor costs rose. That’s good for workers and bad for profit margins. We are now in the longest margin contraction in post war history as NIPA profit margins have fallen for 4.5 years. It’s unusual for ma
Market Stays Overbought Wednesday was the reverse of Tuesday. On Tuesday the S P 500 was the only major index that fell. And on Wednesday it was the only one to increase. S P 500 was up 7 basis points on Wednesday. VIX fell 0.48 to 12.62 which signals high complacency. Stocks are up modestly since i
Weak Openings Strong Hiring The JOLTS report gives us data on hiring, quits, and openings. Two of the three data points were solid. Openings growth was negative because the reading spiked way too high in 2018. A spike made no sense as the difference between openings and hiring hit a record high. As
Flat Market, But Still Overbought The stock market was mostly flat on Tuesday, but stocks are still overbought. It’s common knowledge that earnings season, which is mostly over, was pretty good, that the trade deal is inching closer to completion, and that the Fed is supportive of markets. That’s wh
Weak October Motor Vehicle Sales October motor vehicles report was disappointing. Motor vehicle sales have plateaued in the past few years as you can see from the chart below. This October weakness isn’t the sign of a new downtrend. But it does mean retail sales growth will be hurt by the motor vehi
Stocks Extremely Overbought The stock market again rallied significantly on Monday. Any increase is significant with the market at a record high and the S P 500 up over 20% year to date (it’s up 22.79%). This has been a very strong run in the past few weeks. Since October 8th, the S P 500 is up
