Fed Fires Huge Bazooka Just when it seemed like the situation was calming down as the number of new COVID-19 cases in America seems to be peaking and the number of new hospitalizations in NYC is dropping precipitously, the Fed went overboard and announced it would start buying junk bonds. This is so
Investors Are Less Bullish Over the past few days, many investors have gone from extremely bullish to modestly bullish. That’s because while the market leads the fundamentals, you can’t have a record high market with the shutdowns still in place. Maybe we will see the market get closer to a record h
Consumer Confidence Reversed Sharply Generally speaking, we usually see recessions after consumer confidence is high. A problem with shorting on that basis is consumer confidence can be high for a few years. Most wouldn’t recommend shorting when consumer confidence is high. There needs to be a negat
Big Time Reversal If you thought the extreme action in markets was over like I did, you were wrong. Technically, the market barely moved on Tuesday, but the decline in stocks from the opening pop was epic. It was the biggest gain surrendered since October 17th, 2008. This decline was different from
Same Store Sales Growth Falls Again A decline in same store sales growth in the Redbook report should continue because the initial burst in grocery shopping is over. Some people aren’t getting access to their unemployment insurance which will hurt spending. Rich and upper middle class are pulling ba
Massive Monday Rally The stock market exploded to the upside on Monday as many of the riskiest stocks in the market rose over 20%. You can say these stocks aren’t as risky as they appear because of cheap valuations, but they are cyclical stocks directly impacted by COVID-19. Examples include MGM Res
This Cycle Has Been Speedy This cycle was put on hyper-speed. We had a bear market in a few weeks and a rally big enough to be considered a bull market in a week. Personally, I think the correct way to measure bull markets is for them to start after the previous peak is surpassed.
Small Decline This Week As Markets Cool Admittedly, any calls for calm came too early in this bear market. But this week the projection was finally correct as there weren’t as many wild swings. It’s interesting that even though the S P 500 fell 2.08% this week, which isn’t that much. Especially cons
Markit PMI Was A Disaster If the stock market wasn’t down much, there was no virus, and the Markit services PMI was this weak, we'd say sell stocks and brace for a recession. Services PMI fell from 49.4 to 39.8 which beat estimates for 39.1. Obviously, we are in an unusual time in which the
Stocks Seem To Be Stabilizing It looks like stocks are stabilizing right above the low of late March as investors wait to see when the number of cases in America peaks. It’s a reasonable stance because the market expects the data to get worse before it gets better in a couple weeks. Stocks can’t rea
