In today’s world you never, ever, want to underestimate geopolitical headwinds when it comes to investing and trading. The more interconnected and interdependent markets become and the faster news travels between participants in those markets, the more likely it is that events in far-flung locales w
Here’s a chart that should give you pause: This is how we summed the situation up on Thursday in response to some suggestions that perhaps the US high yield market is somehow going to avert being dragged kicking and screaming into a default cycle by the beleaguered energy complex: “Remember that tim
Someone forgot to tell the terrorists that we’re in the middle of an increasingly epic bout of risk-on sentiment driven primarily by expectations that the Bank of Japan is all set to start throwing cash out of helicopters (figuratively speaking - maybe). Displaying a complete and total lack of regar
Two narratives we’ve been keen on exploring over the past several months are, i) the extent to which buybacks are responsible for persistent strength in US equities, and ii) how much of the bid for US Treasurys can be explained by negative rate policies in Japan and Europe. These are key considerati
Goldman had a conviction going into Thursday’s Bank of England announcement. Here’s what the bank’s FX team put out this morning: “Today, the Bank of England holds its monetary policy meeting, which we expect to be the catalyst for a further downward move in the currency. As we explained in yesterda
Do you hear that? It’s a big sigh of relief. Yesterday, we walked you through a disaster of a 10-year Treasury auction. Lowest bid-to-cover since March 2009, lowest indirect takedown since January of last year, and on, and on. We also explained why you should care. Negative yields in Germany, Switze
Well, we hit new record highs on the S P Tuesday. Is the rally for real? Let’s take a trip to technical analysis land and ask the imaginary chart patterns. Here’s BofAML technical analyst Stephen Suttmeier: “There were 414 calendar days between the May 2015 high and the recent one. Since 1929 there
Oops. Going into this week’s 10- and 30-year Treasury auctions, there was a palpable sense of trepidation among some traders. Take Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow (whose daily market commentary is fantastic if you can get your hands on it), who wrote the following early this morning: “Today and tomorrow
Theory Officially Triumphs Over Common Sense As Markets Hit Record On More Helicopter Talk So there are only three charts you need today. The first is a two-day chart of the yen: The second is of course the S P: And the third comes courtesy of Google Trend: We talked at length on Monday about what’s
As we get set for what promises to be a rocky earnings season (consensus has S P earnings falling for the fifth consecutive quarter), let’s take stock of how far we’ve come since Brexit. Here’s a look at global equities: Not bad, right? UK stocks are up 11% off the closing lows on Monday, June 27.
