The NY Fed updated the household debt statistics reflecting Q1 numbers. The total household debt reached a new record high. Total debt rose $149 billion to $12.73 trillion which is $50 billion higher than the previous record high in Q3 2008. There’s two things to keep in mind when reviewing this hea
The stock market action has almost been nonexistent in the past few weeks. There has been many important economic reports and political stories swirling, but the movement has become minuscule. The movement is so small, it’s probably the biggest story of the year. There’s quite a few shocking charts
The estimate for Q1 GDP by the Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast increased from 3.6% to 4.1% as you can see in the chart below. One of the reasons for the increase was the solid industrial production report released on Tuesday. It caused the forecast for real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth to
The S P 500 and Nasdaq rallied to all-time closing highs on Monday. The market was driven by materials, energy, and financials. Energy rallied because oil was up 2.1% to a two-week high. The energy ministers from Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed in a statement that the production cuts should extend an
In previous articles, I have mentioned that wage inflation would have to grow faster to slow employment growth and push down profit margins. The chart below shows the correlation between unit labor costs and profit margins. When unit labor costs go up, margins fall. What I didn’t mention is unit lab
The stock market’s movement on Friday was almost identical to Thursday. The market fell slightly because of the weakness in retail; the VIX stayed below 11 for the 15th consecutive day. As you can see in the chart below, the streak of the VIX being below 11 made another new record, destroying the pr
The stock market had a small decline on Thursday which was brought about by the collapse in brick and mortar retail stocks. Even with the decline in the S P 500, the VIX continued its streak of closes below 11. The S P 500 is still within 1% of its all-time high. The stock market is as
Healthcare Rent Costs Exploding I have discussed the relationship between the hourly earnings growth and the expansion of employment by small businesses. Small firms are very optimistic as is shown in the NFIB small business survey. With optimism and demand for labor prevalent, increasing wages shou
The VIX rose above 10 on Wednesday, but the S P 500 still barely moved. The S P 500 hasn’t moved more than 0.5% intraday in 14 days which is the longest streak since 1971. As you can see in the chart below, the VIX has had a 13 day streak of closes below 11 which is
The stock market’s breadth stinks. Breadth is the measure of the rally’s broad based support. In my last article, I mentioned how Apple is responsible for all the gains in the Dow. The chart below shows that since March 1st, the fantastic five tech stocks which are Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix,
