Weak Economic Reports - Another Rally On Wednesday Weak Economic Reports - S P 500 increased 0.58% on Wednesday which was surprising to me because retail sales and industrial production missed estimates. Economic growth could end up being below 2% in Q2. That doesn’t correlate with a rising stock ma
Cass Freight Index - Q1 Household Debt Report: Debt Totals Before getting into the Cass Freight Index, let's review the NY Fed’s household debt and credit report. It gives us details on delinquency rates, nominal debt, and the credit scores of debt holders. Also, it gives us color on strength of the
Chinese Economic Growth - And The Recovery Rally On Tuesday Chinese Economic Growth - There wasn’t any major trade news on Tuesday, which some might see as a positive. President Trump tweeted about trade, but he just reiterated previous points. I think the market rallied because it was oversold, not
Capitulation Moment? Capitulation - Whenever the market corrects or falls into a bear market, investors are always trying to spot the bottom to make a quick profit. The American stock market has had the best real returns out of any country’s stock market in the past 100 years. It’s not a given that
Market Correction - Stocks Crater On Trade Fears Market Correction - In a previous article, I predicted that when China retaliated against America’s new 25% tariff rate on $200 billion worth of goods, the stock market would fall. On Monday, China stated it would tariff $60 billion worth of American
Global Trade War - Tight Labor Versus Margins Global Trade War - The labor market is relatively tight, although the prime age labor force participation rate is still below the previous 3 cycle peaks. The relatively tight labor market hasn’t led to heightened inflation. April core CPI was only 2.07%.
Uber IPO - Stocks Recover On Friday After Positive Trade Talks Before getting into Uber IPO, let's review trade news. There seems to be a pattern with trade talks. President Trump seems to talk tough on trade when Chinese markets are open, to send them lower. And then talks positive on trade when Am
Trade War - March Deficit Increases Slightly Trade War - International trade report matters much more than usual because of the ongoing trade negotiations with China. In April, China had a $21.01 billion surplus with America which was more than its overall surplus. This latest American trade report
Is This A Correction? Trade Swoon - This has been a spectacular year for stocks, but even in big up years, there are usually corrections. 2017 was a rare example where there weren’t many declines and none became corrections. It’s possible that the correction I predicted to occur in May is here. S P
