Jobs, Jobs, and More Jobs and Surprises Today and Friday
We had a hint of potential surprise with the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report released each first Friday of the month. Although usually a non-event, the ADP jobs report surprise - twice the number of jobs added as expected - was a major event and sent the bond market falling to downside price targets as yields…
Will Fed Minutes Signal a Top
In today's video we looked at the upcoming Fed Minutes as a catalyst for the market, focusing on the discord in the Fed rather than the rate decision. We also discussed a non unanimous decision in the rate pause as a signal of uncertainty and running out of ideas on how to manage inflation.
EVs and Crypto Bid on Eve of Independence Day
It appears that traders are making a move on high short interest names in EV and crypto as we head into the Independence Day holiday. The setup is similar to last Monday but more focused as big cap tech and cyclicals led last week. (RIOT, MARA, BITO, COIN, FSR, NKLA, TSLA, RIVN, BYND, WMT)
Will the End of the Quarter End the Rally?
-Window dressing or real rally? -Order-flow in tech has changed -Expected Moves XLF & XLE vs QQQ -Bonds & yield curve -Position update SPX Expected Move-- Last week- 54.73 (expected move 5 day week) Next week- 53.54 (expected move 3 1/2 day week)
GDP Signals More Rate Hikes Needed
In today's video, we look at Final GDP as a confirmation of a resilient economy and the justification if not requirement of future Federal Reserve rate hikes. We discuss the movement of copper as an indication of falling global demand and also look at the bearish breakout in bond prices and bullish breakout in yields…
Taking Profits in an Uncertain Market
Ultima Trades strike again as we close several profitable positions this week in a highly uncertain market.
Stock Scans and Unusual Strength in Unlikely Stocks
Today saw the stock market rally over 1%, snapping last week's series of down days with a bounce play intraday. However, some of the strongest stocks in today's session surprised traders with resilient relative strength in surprising sectors. In tonight's video, we'll pinpoint these unusually strong stocks that continue to get stronger amid a mixed…
Bears Negotiating a Truce as Tech Option Activity Heats Up
We finally get a pull-back and the bears appear to be losing some momentum. Energy and Real Estate topped today's performance, but it's big cap technology that appears to have bullish option activity building beneath the surface. (QCOM, AMD, INTC, OXY, JNJ, GIS, AMZN)
Market Unwind? From Rally to Recession
- The other-side of the gamma squeeze - Where is the volatility? - Are we really selling-off? Not TECH! - Inverted skews - Commodities sell-off, bonds rally - Position update SPX Expected Move - - Last week - 50.91 (Expected move 4 day week) - Next week - 54.73 (Expected move 5 day week)
Is the Fed Afraid of Destroying Equities?
In today's video, we discuss why the recent pause from the Federal Reserve rate hikes while the rest of the world is raising rates. We discuss the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia and others increasing rates with surprise hikes desperate to fight inflation. In addition, we discuss the direct correlation with Fed…