Mr. Toad took a wild ride this week… only to end up just about where he started. Massively unchanged. Volatility has collapsed back down toward 20, but don’t think for a second that that means the fun’s over. I’m going to show you some hijinks in the bond market that point to even more turbulence
The market has been a rollercoaster lately, with the resilience of defensive sectors and the modest bounce in the technology sector painting an intriguing picture. This movement hints at a temporary adjustment rather than a full-blown recovery. The VIX, still holding strong above 22, reinforces this
Sure, the VIX is down from the other day’s damn near historic high above 65. But it’s still more than double what it was just a month ago. Then again, there’s more than one way to measure volatility. And it’s not like volatility is a bad thing, at least if you’re ready for it -
Well, it’s finally happened. I’ve been warning for months - since it was cooler outside - that the carry trade in increasingly expensive Japanese yen was likely to blow the markets apart. And wouldn’t you know it… the mad traders’ rush to unwind their suddenly-expensive yen carry trades has at last
Sunday night’s headlines were unsettling as an onlooker - you could watch the carnage erupt in big Asian markets like Korea and especially Japan, where the Nikkei just had its roughest session ever. So I knew even then it would only be a matter of hours before the carnage jumped back over the Intern
It looks like, after a long, long run of being upside-down, bad news is bad news again… Not-great jobs numbers are pointing to an economic slowdown; crude oil prices are actually pricing one in. Bond prices are in full-on “duck-and-cover” mode.” Second-quarter earnings have been kryptonite for tech
The “feel” of the market is strange right now. It feels like someone saw a fire and pulled the alarm… but investors are essentially treating it like a fire drill. We’re not seeing panic, chaos, mass capital destruction - just a big selloff of the marquee names like Nvidia on the NASDAQ. Stocks like
Fed Day played out about how we expected - a massive buying bender before the FOMC announcement and JPo press conference… and some selling afterward. (And by “some,” I mean we’re off 40 handles since Powell spoke.) But the price action I’m looking at right now, and which you’ll be seeing in just a s
It’s tough to call them the Magnificent Seven anymore, at least with a straight face, but these stocks - once the leaders among leaders - are all down today. It’s one of the starkest reminders yet that tech is becoming a hurdle for the indexes to clear, rather than a springboard for launch. The sell
