It’s Been a Slow Week… But Get Ready for Volatility (Helmets On!)
I hope everyone had fun snoozing through this week’s slop-tastic sessions. Hope everyone got their beauty sleep… …because it’s about to get wild in this market. If you know where to look (and I’ll show you) you can see the signs of imminent volatility. On Wednesday, I showed you how sector rotation and an increase…
This Sector Is Your Best Bet Right Now
“Inflation’s under control, it’s normal. Not a problem.” The Fed told us this through most of 2021 when inflation was in fact ballooning… but this time they really mean it. And to put a point on it, they slashed interest rates by 50 basis points. And yet… nearly all assets other than crude oil…
Defensive Posture: Dump Financials, Stock Up on Utilities and Tech
If you didn’t know any better, looking at the market this afternoon, you’d think “Hm. Quiet. No volume.” And you’d be right… but this market is going to wake up. How do I know? You can tell a lot by following the flow of cash out of one sector and into another. Go figure. Right…
The Bulls Are Pressing the Bears As Stocks Consolidate Near All-Time Highs
Stocks enjoyed a decent day as tech and semiconductors led the crowd to the upside. Gold hit new all-time highs and silver surged, which is just more confirmation that we’re on the right track to be bullish here. Interestingly, crypto benefited from a strong bid, too. Both metal and crypto miners continue to offer us…
We’re Dealing with Muted Monday Malevolence
The S&P 500 is like a plane in a holding pattern, trading mildly higher. Nothing to write home about… nothing to get excited about… right? Well, traders are digesting the 50-basis-point rate cut we got last week - and weighing the 50/50 proposition that the Fed may cut another 50 basis points at their November…
The Fed Just Put All the Bulls on Notice
Triple-witching - the September event is coming hot on the heels of our 50bp rate cut. Trillions in notional value in derivatives expired today. If you were expecting fireworks… sorry, you didn’t really get them. Normally a triple-witching afternoon sees a massive jolt of volatility, but we didn’t see that today even around an hour…
Geopolitical Tension Is Setting Certain Stocks Up for a Move
“Buy on the canons…” Pop-history tells us Baron Rothschild said that during the Napoleonic Wars… but there’s a good chance he didn’t. Whoever really said it wasn’t exactly wrong. Times of conflict, like we’re seeing in the Middle East and in Ukraine and Russia, put upward pressure on defense contractors and oil companies. And, as…
The Fed Fumbles… And Hands Us Huge Opportunities
The Fed slashed interest rates by 50 basis points today… while saying they intended to run a “rather restrictive policy.” The reaction was fairly muted - a lot of this has been baked in. I think a cut like this is going to keep the market on edge for the foreseeable future. That’s because, in…
Stocks Hit New All-Time Highs Ahead of Rate Cuts
The Dow finally has company - the much broader S&P 500 has joined it at the all-time high party. If you sense something missing from this picture, you’re not wrong… I’m concerned that the NASDAQ hasn’t notched highs this month. Of course, that’s the home of tech in the market, and tech stocks typically react…
The Fed “Train” Is Leaving the Station: Destination Unknown
The markets are pricing in the first rate cut in more than four years. As of this writing, it looks like we can expect a 50-basis-point cut on Wednesday, with a 50% probability of a 1.25% cut by December. That’s fast… but what’s the hurry? Is the Fed that desperate to accommodate the mountain of…