One of the members…well…he had made too much money too fast.
I know that doesn’t sound like a problem. But, he overleveraged on momentum names that could gap down 5% overnight.
I have watched traders like him blow up for 39 years. They swing for the fences every time.
One bad pitch and they strike out of the business entirely.
You hit home runs. We hit singles. Together, we make a great baseball team.
This weekend, I want to talk about the lesson that took me almost four decades to understand.
The one that lets me hit the pillow at night and fall asleep like that.
The Math That Changes Everything
I could lose $4 to make $20.
Run that through your head. Yes, you lose sometimes. You will not make money on every trade.
Nobody does. I never did.
But when you set it up right, your losses stay small. Your wins far outstrip the damage.
One member had a single trade pay for his entire yearly membership. I put out hundreds all year long. One trade was all he needed.
That is how the math works when you contain risk.
How We Actually Trade
We do not chunk. We stagger.
Get in 100 shares. Sell 25 at the first resistance. Sell 25 at the next level.
Pyramid up your profits while locking in gains along the way.
Take Cheesecake Factory this week. I bought at $48 when money managers panicked. The Genesis COG footprint showed a weekly curl forming.
It ran to $63.50. I told members to sell half out of pure discipline.
That is an 18% gain with half the position still running. Here is what matters about that trade:
- If I was wrong, I stopped out at $44. A $4 loss.
- If I was right, the upside was $15 or more.
- Risk $4 to make $15. That is how you survive.
The other half is still in. If it goes higher, I make more. If it reverses, I already locked in gains.
I cannot lose on this trade now.
What Home Run Traders Get Wrong
I bought Tesla once. Up $10,000. Down $30,000. Up again. Down again.
That volatility will break you. You will quit the business.
If your losses run 30% and 40%, you will not survive long. And if your position sizing is off, you will crash and burn faster than you think.
The Genesis COG System tells you when to buy, what to buy, and how much to weight it.
The 75% Reality
I have 20 positions on right now. Three or four are not doing well.
But I will take 15 out of 20. I will take that 75% success rate anytime.
Nobody gets 100%. There are losers on my list.
But when I lose, it is 5% or 8%. Contained. Manageable.
I am not looking to be a hero. I am just going 10%, 10%, 5%.
Add it up by year's end, and you are up 30% or 40% on singles alone.
Why This Matters Now
The market is a coiled spring. Something big is coming in the next five days.
When it blows, most traders will fall apart. They will gap down with nothing they can do.
Genesis COG members will be the last ones standing.
The market down 20%? We will be making money. We do not care which direction.
We make money either way because we do not take outsized risks. We cannot get badly hurt.
I am getting closer to retirement at 65. Building wealth the way it actually works.
Not through home runs that strike out. Through singles that compound.
Risk first. Reward second. The rest takes care of itself.
Professor Jeffrey Bierman
Creator of the Genesis COG System