This is a dangerous market.
I told you five weeks ago there was zero chance of a selloff. Nothing has changed.
Yet, I know many traders feel the need to “find” setups before 2026.
That’s a great way to obliterate any gains you achieved in 2025.
The market is frozen in a block of ice right now.
The algorithms have locked us between 6,800 and 6,900.
The Block of Ice
Pull up any chart right now.
Flick your screen. It barely moves.
The RSI is sideways. The MACD is sideways.
The stochastic shows a slight upward bump. None of these are sell signals.
None of these are buy signals either. We're stuck in a flag formation.
I put in one trade today. Bought a little more of one stock for about 35 to 40 cents profit.
That's my entire day.
Why Hedge Funds Don't Sell
I ran a hedge fund for 11 years. We never sold in December.
You do. We don't.
When the market is up heading into year-end, fund managers let it ride. We want our bonuses.
I got fat bonuses in December. Enough to buy cars.
You don't disrupt the tape when your compensation depends on where it closes. You keep it frozen in place and collect your check.
Every time technicals suggest a rollover, machines pump it back up. The chances of breaking below 6,800 through year-end are zero.
The Technical Prison
Look at all three indicators together.
The RSI shows a sideways move. The MACD shows the same thing.
This configuration tells you one thing. Don't force trades.
Don't come out here and get all beared up. Don't come in here and get all bulled up.
Scout for two or three points intraday if you must. Building directional positions into this tape is financial suicide.
When The Ice Breaks
January changes everything.
The same managers defending every dip right now won't need to own anything once the calendar flips. Window dressing pressure disappears overnight.
Nobody needs to chase performance anymore. The bonuses are already locked in.
That's when volatility returns. That's when real two-sided trading begins.
Wait until January when nobody needs to own anything anymore. Let the first few trading days pass.
Then start contemplating positions.
The Frozen Setup
This market wants to end the year at 6,900. What the market wants is usually what it gets.
The algorithms are programmed to defend this level through December 31st. Fighting that programming destroys accounts.
I've traded for 38 years. I've watched traders blow up every December trying to force action that isn't there.
Pack it in. The screen looks frozen because the market is frozen.
The Genesis COG System identifies exactly when year-end positioning exhausts itself and the frozen patterns finally break. When the algorithms stop defending, real price discovery begins.
The thaw is coming. Just not yet.
See how Genesis COG detects when frozen markets finally break →
Professor Jeffrey Bierman
Creator of the Genesis COG System