Woke up to someone mowing my lawn uninvited. That was the warm-up act before Fed Day — the kind of morning that reminds you how weird capitalism can get. Anyway, Jerome Powell’s on deck, tech earnings are stacked, and momentum’s still being juiced by AI and leverage. Let’s dig in.
Key Takeaways
Fed Day, but it’s a sideshow
- The Fed funds rate barely matters anymore — the real signal comes from liquidity and repo flows.
- Traders are positioning for Powell’s 2:30 PM speech, but the 2:35 reaction will tell the truth.
Leverage is alive and well
- Nvidia over 208, AI equities powering global rallies, and heavy crowding in the “Magnificent Seven.”
- That’s where the leverage lives — the whole market’s balance depends on those mega-caps holding up.
Undercurrents weakening
- Cruise lines (RCL, CCL, NCLH) are breaking down, Moderna still flatlining, and small-caps show selling pressure.
- Consumer cyclicals are struggling while tech and luxury keep masking the softness underneath.
Insider conviction is real
- Kinder Morgan’s chairman just dropped $25 million of his own cash into shares at $26.
- When an energy exec loads up like that, it’s not just a trade — it’s a signal.
What I’m Watching
Liquidity remains the compass. If Powell’s language hints at easing or balance-sheet expansion, bond volatility (MOVE index) could spike, flipping the yield curve and reigniting rotation into gold, energy, and Japan’s Nikkei — all running hot. But if he sounds even mildly hawkish, expect leveraged tech positions to unwind fast, starting with Meta and Alphabet post-earnings. I’m also watching volume-weighted average price (VWAP) into 2:35 PM — that’s where the real reaction hits.
This market’s built on borrowed time and borrowed money. You can ignore the noise, but not the liquidity. When the music stops, the margin calls start. Trade what you see — not what you hope Powell says.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE