Hey, it’s Garrett.
This morning I watched another third Friday slip by while 99% of traders had no idea what they were missing. Here's the calendar secret that separates consistently profitable traders from the rest.
You get 12 opportunities per year to trade in an environment where everything is different. Higher volatility. Tighter spreads. Maximum liquidity. Options expiring on every major stock.
Today was one of those days.
And if you weren't specifically hunting 8-over-20 EMA crossovers on the 3-minute charts with zero-day options, you probably missed it entirely.
Why Monthly Expiration Changes Everything
When I rolled into my childhood house this morning (long story - power was out at the new place), I knew exactly what type of day we were facing. October 17th. Monthly options expiration across the entire market.
This creates a trading environment that literally doesn't exist any other time.
Every major stock has options expiring TODAY. That forces massive position adjustments, creates artificial volatility, and gives us opportunities that simply don't exist on random Tuesdays.
The banking sector was getting crushed on credit concerns. But here's what most traders missed - Zions, Western Alliance, KRE, JPMorgan all had options expiring today.
That changes everything.
The 8-Over-20 Strategy That Actually Works
While everyone else was trying to predict which way banks would move, I was watching for something much more mechanical:
8-day EMA crossing over 20-day EMA on the 3-minute chart.
No complex analysis. No forecasting. Just waiting for that crossover and buying whatever's in-the-money at that exact moment.
Why does this work? Because expiration day creates artificial technical setups. The massive options flow and position adjustments create predictable price action around these moving averages.
Earlier this week I mentioned our SPY trade - $3.10 calls that hit $10 in four and a half hours. That wasn't genius. That was understanding how expiration mechanics work.
The Defensive Play Nobody Talks About
This morning, while banks were getting hammered, I was watching consumer defensives. Keurig Dr Pepper. Walmart.
When liquidity gets sucked out of one sector, it flows somewhere else.
During February's selloff, money flowed into KDP. Same pattern today. KDP's 8-day moving over the 20-day EMA. Banking stress creating rotation into defensives.
A 23-cent move from $27.50 to $27.73 doesn't sound exciting. Unless you're holding zero-day options with maximum time decay working FOR you instead of against you. Then it's a 27% return in hours.
What You Actually Missed Today
By 1 PM, the pattern was clear. Classic expiration day squeeze-and-fade. Markets opened down hard, squeezed higher on positioning adjustments, then started fading as funds sold back into strength.
The VIX hit 25 this morning, backed off to 23. Banking stress created rotation opportunities. Gold hit new records. Everything behaved exactly like it should on maximum expiration day.
But none of that matters if you weren't hunting the right setups.
Most traders spent today trying to predict market direction. The smart money was trading the mechanics of expiration day itself.
The Calendar Edge You're Ignoring
I don't care about trading every day. I care about trading the days when the entire market structure changes in my favor.
Monthly expiration creates artificial opportunities.
Maximum open interest. Forced position adjustments. Predictable technical patterns around key moving averages.
It's not about being smarter than the market. It's about understanding when market mechanics work FOR you instead of against you.
Next month's expiration is November 15th. Mark your calendar. Study the 8-over-20 crossover strategy. Learn to identify which sectors are rotating.
Because while everyone else is trying to day-trade their way to consistency, you'll be waiting for the 12 days that actually matter.
The market gives you 250+ trading days per year. But only 12 offer this specific edge.
Most traders waste them entirely.
Stay Positive,
Garrett Baldwin
P.S. I’m live every morning in the pre-market, check me out on Monday.