Another Monday, another mood swing. The market’s acting like a caffeinated ping-pong ball—up, down, sideways—driven by short bursts of momentum and zero trend. You can’t predict it. You just react. That’s the environment right now, and if you’re not watching intraday signals, you’re trading blind.
Key Takeaways
Momentum whiplash continues
- The intraday signal flipped from -40 yesterday to -6 this morning.
- Lower highs have turned into higher highs, and the SPY reclaimed its 8-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages.
Gold leads the rebellion
- Up 100% since the “Hedge of Tomorrow” thesis—gold’s now outperforming the S&P since 2000.
- Central banks are buying hand over fist, and this is just the second inning of a multi-year shift.
Liquidity trumps logic
- Global liquidity is at record highs. China’s still injecting capital, Powell quietly hinted QT is done, and QE by another name is coming.
- They won’t call it money printing—but that’s exactly what it’ll be.
Semiconductors and AI still steering the ship
- ASML, Nvidia, AMD, Intel — the monopoly crew is doing the heavy lifting.
- AI CapEx remains the economic engine, and it could easily carry markets another 6–9 months.
Trade setups lighting up
- Newmont (NEM): Sell put spreads down to $75–80 — the gold trend isn’t done.
- Dollar General (DG): Long via Nov 21 105/110 call spread. Cheap, clean structure.
- Generac (GNRC): Pure momentum play with RSI and MFI both surging.
- UDN (Dollar Bear ETF): Long $18 calls — dirt cheap way to play dollar weakness.
What I’m Watching
The market’s in full liquidity mode—no trend, just rotation and micro-bursts of movement. Watch the banks as earnings roll in, especially regionals between $64–66 on KRE. If the dollar breaks lower, gold and commodities will stay hot. Tech remains the backbone, but keep an eye on insider buying in industrials and energy; that’s where rotation tends to begin when liquidity cycles peak.
This isn’t a bear or bull market—it’s a liquidity machine. The players may change, but the game doesn’t. Stay quick, stay technical, and remember: when money’s free, everything rallies… until it doesn’t.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE