Friday brought the usual noise—data, tariffs, and sector rotation—but the underlying story didn’t change. Momentum is wobbling, liquidity is still the driver, and traders are stuck deciding whether today is opportunity or a trap. If you’re not following momentum, you’re guessing.
Key Takeaways
Momentum at equilibrium
- Breakouts and breakdowns are dead even, putting the market into a yellow zone—neither bullish nor bearish.
- That balance means reversions and chop dominate until something tips the scales.
AI still leading the parade
- Riot moved into the number two spot in crypto miners, Nvidia keeps carrying tech, and DoorDash is grinding higher.
- The AI wave is still just 18 months in—it’s not done, even if leadership rotates.
Sector stress points
- Financials, private credit, and regional banks remain under pressure post-rate cut—classic “sell the news.”
- Trump tariffs hit pharma, heavy trucks, and even furniture. Names like Pfizer, Deere, and Wayfair all caught heat.
Energy resilience
- OPEC missed targets by 500,000 barrels, inventories drew down, and crude ripped higher.
- Exxon, Chevron, SLB, and Halliburton broke above key averages, with RSI/MFI nearing overbought profit-taking levels.
Trades on the board
- ARM downside spreads toward $137 with tight stops at $143.
- Block (SQ) short setup from 74 to 71, keeping stops at the 50-day.
- CHTR bottom-feeding candidate—calls or calendars around $260–265 if it finally breaks.
What I’m Watching
The big tell is whether the SPY can reclaim its 8-day moving average or if breakdown accelerates into negative momentum territory. FNGD over its 50-day would confirm a shift. Energy looks extended—watch for overbought signals and contrarian pullbacks. Insiders remain active in gold and miners (HYMC, FCX), while sectors like utilities and auto parts are showing clean momentum.
This isn’t a clean tape—it’s equilibrium. Chop, reversions, and algo-driven swings define it. The job isn’t predicting the future, it’s managing probabilities. Stay tight, stay disciplined, and remember: equilibrium doesn’t last forever.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE