Triple witching day. The kind of session where liquidity sloshes around like a busted keg at a frat party. If you don’t know how funds rebalance after a Fed cut and a tech rally, buckle up — today was your education.
Key Takeaways
FedEx isn’t just about packages — it’s about the economy
- Margins ticked higher and U.S. domestic volumes held up, but international exports slipped.
- Guidance is solid, but keep your eye on tariffs and rising input costs — this is the bellwether for inflation trends.
Triple witching means expect chaos
- Stock options, index options, and index futures all expired today, with trillions rolling over.
- That last hour — the witching hour — was a playground for volume surges, wide spreads, and sharp reversals.
Momentum still rules the tape
- SPY held above key moving averages, with futures eyeing 7100.
- Every dip into standard deviation bands set up quick, high-probability reversals.
Insider buying is quiet — and that matters
- Executives have historically nailed bottoms, but right now they’re sitting on their hands.
- Don’t ignore that absence of conviction as earnings season approaches.
What I’m Watching
Rotation. Tech has been running hot, but energy and consumer cyclicals are quietly pushing into focus. Watch the small-cap biotechs with heavy insider buying — they’ve been sneaking higher while nobody’s looking. On the other side, Disney and consumer defensives are dead weight, and I don’t see a catalyst to change that anytime soon.
Triple witching isn’t about headlines or hype — it’s about positioning. If you watched closely today, you didn’t just see price action… you saw how the machine works. That’s the kind of lesson that sticks with you long after the closing bell.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE