We’re walking into CPI tomorrow with momentum still holding green, but cracks starting to show in key places. Energy’s turning, lumber is falling, semis are breaking out, and the housing trade that started months ago refuses to quit. Beneath all of this, you can feel it: when leverage unwinds, it’s going to hit hard. But today wasn’t about panic—it was about prep.
Key Takeaways
Momentum still green—housing and semis lead
- Homebuilders like DR Horton and Lennar keep ripping—up 30–40% since the May 13D analysis.
- Semis like Western Digital, Lam Research, and Broadcom continue to break out, powering market breadth.
Watch FNGD for the real tell
- The inverse FANG ETN sits at lows, but when it breaks above its 20- and 50-day MAs, it means leverage is leaving.
- That’s the canary. Ignore the headlines—watch FNGD and UVXY for the real signals.
Macro: inflation narrative is broken
- Government says CPI at 3%, but real cost-of-living is compounding 10–13% per year in major cities.
- That’s why gold, silver, and other real assets keep grinding higher—they’re the hedge against monetary inflation.
Trade setups on the board
- CrowdStrike bouncing off its 200-day with upside toward $440.
- Okta momentum improving with a 92.50–95 spread in play.
- MGM gave a 211% win, now breaking down with clean put spread setups toward $35.
What I’m Watching
CPI data tomorrow is the big catalyst. A weaker print pushes odds of a 50-bps cut up, but if the Fed only delivers 25, that positioning has to unwind—and equities drop. I’m also watching precious metals and miners on any pullback to key support, plus momentum names like Yelp and ANET that are setting up on screens. Global politics (UK, France, Japan) are another wild card—when those dominoes fall, it spills into U.S. equities fast.
This isn’t a market you “set and forget.” It’s a trader’s tape—one where momentum, leverage signals, and macro catalysts decide the next leg. Prepare now, because next week’s Fed meeting could be the most tradable three days of the quarter.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE