Jobs data disappointed, bonds rallied, equities ripped, and under the surface, rotations kept moving. This was one of those mornings where “bad news is good news” took center stage—and the tape gave us plenty to trade if you were watching the right setups.
Key Takeaways
Jobs weakness fuels dovish bets
- August payrolls came in at just 22,000—well under expectations.
- The 10-year yield sank to 4.09%, pushing rate-cut odds for September to nearly 100% and even pricing in a 50 bps move.
Housing and semis catching flows
- Homebuilders like Lennar and Williams rallied on lower-rate expectations.
- Broadcom led semis back above key moving averages, while Nvidia stayed choppy but tradable off VWAP.
Retail cracks continue
- Lululemon got smoked on earnings, dropping over 20%.
- The setup now is to stalk VWAP reversions intraday, with oversold conditions possibly inviting a bid.
Private equity creeping into 401(k)s
- Goldman Sachs partnering with T. Rowe Price is a massive tell—private equity wants retail retirement funds.
- That means higher fees, longer lockups, and more risk for everyday investors.
What I’m Watching
Broadcom’s momentum looks sticky, and if semis keep breaking higher, they’ll drag NVDA back with them. I’m also watching gold and GDX after dovish expectations juiced safe-haven flows—spreads on GDX remain my favorite way to play it. On the retail side, LULU is a “trade, not an investment,” and I’ll be stalking intraday reversions there. Longer-term, the Goldman/T. Rowe story is the bigger risk—because once private equity gets a foot in the 401(k) door, retail investors become the exit liquidity.
The market doesn’t care about jobs—it cares about liquidity. And right now, bad data just means more cuts, more cash, and more leverage. Ride the wave, but don’t forget: when liquidity flips, it won’t give you a warning.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE