Momentum is green, Powell caved, and now the Fed is about to back up the truck. This is no longer a debate about inflation—it’s about jobs, liquidity, and how much capital they’re willing to pump into the system. That’s the real game. And while the talking heads on CNBC whine about “nothing happening,” we’re staring at opportunities in every corner of the market.
Key Takeaways
Momentum intact—watch the FNGD
- Powell’s speech was total capitulation. Rate cuts are coming, T-bill tweaks are coming, QE whispers are next.
- The only line that matters: if FNGD (inverse Mag Seven ETN) stays under its 20- and 50-day moving averages, momentum remains bullish.
Intel as government-backed venture capital
- The U.S. government is set to take a ~$10B stake in Intel under the CHIPS Act. That’s not charity—it’s industrial policy.
- Smart trade: November put spread (sell $20 / buy $18) gives 20% return on risk with an 82% probability of profit.
Sector-specific setups
- Wayfair got smoked on tariff rumors—ripe for a reversion trade off extreme deviations.
- Cruise lines like Norwegian regained momentum above the 20-day MA—cheap IV makes outright stock a cleaner play.
- Lululemon is a beaten-down mess, but a tight call spread sets up a defined-risk reversion bet.
What I’m Watching
Nvidia earnings are the main event—guidance will decide if the AI party keeps raging or if valuations finally bite. PDD just reminded us that Chinese e-commerce is still clawing global share, so don’t ignore that flow. On the macro side, Friday’s PCE inflation print is the Fed’s north star—if it runs hot, expect the market to spin the jobs narrative even harder to justify more liquidity. Meanwhile, REITs and closed-end funds are flashing key setups—opportunities for patient capital with tight stops.
This isn’t a market for tourists—it’s a market for traders who know their lines, watch momentum, and move when the math makes sense. Liquidity is the game, and if you’re not following it, you are the liquidity.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE